real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.82% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (92.8% posterior, -3.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0255%/day and dominates. Net +0.0090%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.82% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | +7.6 | Financials | 16.8 | 1.04 | 53% | Meta and BlackRock form $14 billion venture for 1-gigawatt El Paso AI campusprofitable |
| META | +4.2 | Communication Services | 15.8 | 0.86 | 24% | Meta Earnings Put AI Spending and Ad Growth Back in Focusprofitable |
| STX | +4.0 | Information Technology | 13.8 | 0.57 | 62% | Seagate Stock Shakes Off AI Rally Fears With Big Earnings BeatprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| RDDT | +3.9 | Communication Services | 19.5 | 1.28 | 36% | Reddit’s Self-Service Ad Push Could Matter More Than Its Headline Growth Numbersprofitable |
| CORZ | +2.6 | Information Technology | 97.9 | — | 31% | Why AMD (AMD) and Core Scientific (CORZ) Are Pairing AI Chips With Up to 2.5 GigawattsEV/EBITDA < 10P/B < 1.5Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.49 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | BLK | LONG | 40.9% | -0.21 | -0.29 | -0.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.6); Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | RDDT | LONG | 41.0% | -0.30 | -0.48 | -0.22 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); Accelerating velocity +3.6 (2 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | CORZ | LONG | 40.5% | -0.29 | -0.46 | -0.12 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | WDAY | LONG | 41.3% | -0.01 | +0.20 | +0.77 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | GEV | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.49 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | GEHC | LONG | 40.6% | -0.16 | -0.19 | +0.15 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | META | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.49 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 41.7% over 120 scored calls (lower bound 33.2%), average net alpha -0.004%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $2.2 billion insider trading case against founders and the board is a systemic governance failure that triggers immediate institutional divestment and catastrophic loss of management credibility.
2026-07-28 19:21Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The FDA's negative response to HIMS's peptide pipeline represents a fundamental regulatory wall that threatens the core growth engine of the brand's current valuation, moving beyond routine noise into a structural risk.
2026-07-26 01:19The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35A Q2 beat and a significant raise in 2026 revenue guidance signals strong long-term demand and high visibility into the future order book, which the market typically rewards with a valuation multiple expansion.
2026-07-22 12:22The SpaceX IPO is a generational liquidity event that will trigger massive institutional FOMO and valuation expansion, outweighing any 'sell the news' risks due to thes scarcity of high-growth aerospace monopolies.
2026-07-22 04:15Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | +5.4 | 2 | Meta and BlackRock form $14 billion venture for 1-gigawatt El Paso AI campus |
| CORZ | +5.4 | 2 | Why AMD (AMD) and Core Scientific (CORZ) Are Pairing AI Chips With Up to 2.5 Gigawatts |
| GEHC | +5.4 | 2 | S&P 500 Stocks: GEHC Revives, Humana Fades On Earnings |
| RDDT | +3.6 | 2 | Reddit’s Self-Service Ad Push Could Matter More Than Its Headline Growth Numbers |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SOFI | -8.3 | SoFi Just Posted Record Growth and Profitability -- So Why Is the Stock Down 10%? |
| LMND | -2.8 | Lemonade Shares Slide After Results Fail to Meet High Investor Expectations |
| SNDK | -2.4 | Sandisk (SNDK) continues its crash after hours, down almost -20% on the day, and -60% off its highs in just over 1 month. |
| HIMS | -2.3 | US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap |
| AMT | -2.0 | American Tower Beats Second-Quarter Estimates but Revenue Outlook Misses Expectations |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +45 | +686 | +3,312 | |
| Energy | +136 | +574 | +2,336 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +26 | +118 | -186 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +23 | +66 | -364 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +11 | +14 | -318 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +26 | -44 | -676 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +18 | -72 | -838 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -119 | -128 | +708 | |
| Utilities | -50 | -214 | -832 | |
| Real Estate | -92 | -476 | -1,572 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -20 | -524 | -1,570 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +82.5 | +96 | |
| Tariffs | +19.0 | -15 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | +13.0 | -4 | |
| Blockchain | +12.3 | +23 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -27.3 | -33 | |
| Interest Rates | -67.7 | -136 | |
| Semiconductors | -83.5 | -62 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -110.3 | +44 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
NO CONSENSUS — no model currently clears its validation floor, so no directional vote is published.
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.3551% is worse than the 0.8928% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +8.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.77% |
Fear looks OVERPRICED vs statistical vol (fat premium — historically a bullish carry signal) — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.28 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.66 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.58 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.57 | 1.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.54 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.51 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.49 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.47 | 2.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,103 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,156 |
| Projected close of day | 1,151 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.95× |
| Total in corpus | 134,196 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.