real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.82% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (92.8% posterior, -3.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0255%/day and dominates. Net +0.0090%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.82% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | +5.4 | Financials | 16.8 | 1.05 | 53% | Meta and BlackRock form $14 billion venture for 1-gigawatt El Paso AI campusprofitable |
| PYPL | +4.1 | Financials | 10.1 | 0.93 | 49% | Signal: PayPal Stock Could Give Back July GainsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| META | +3.1 | Communication Services | 15.9 | 0.86 | 24% | Meta Earnings Put AI Spending and Ad Growth Back in Focusprofitable |
| RDDT | +2.8 | Communication Services | 19.5 | 1.28 | 36% | Reddit’s Self-Service Ad Push Could Matter More Than Its Headline Growth Numbersprofitable |
| STX | +2.8 | Information Technology | 13.8 | 0.57 | 62% | Seagate Stock Shakes Off AI Rally Fears With Big Earnings BeatprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMKR | LONG | 40.4% | -0.34 | -0.35 | -0.68 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 2 | STX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | RDDT | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.8); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | BLK | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4) |
| 5 | PYPL | LONG | 40.6% | -0.33 | -0.48 | -0.38 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 6 | META | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.1); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.1% over 123 scored calls (lower bound 34.7%), average net alpha +0.069%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53A $2.2 billion insider trading case against founders and the board is a systemic governance failure that triggers immediate institutional divestment and catastrophic loss of management credibility.
2026-07-28 19:21Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The FDA's negative response to HIMS's peptide pipeline represents a fundamental regulatory wall that threatens the core growth engine of the brand's current valuation, moving beyond routine noise into a structural risk.
2026-07-26 01:19The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35A Q2 beat and a significant raise in 2026 revenue guidance signals strong long-term demand and high visibility into the future order book, which the market typically rewards with a valuation multiple expansion.
2026-07-22 12:22Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | +7.0 | 5 | Signal: PayPal Stock Could Give Back July Gains |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SOFI | -6.0 | SoFi Just Posted Record Growth and Profitability -- So Why Is the Stock Down 10%? |
| CVLT | -3.2 | Why Commvault Stock Crashed Today |
| AMKR | -2.9 | Amkor Technology Scores an Earnings Beat and the Stock Plummets 25% |
| LMND | -2.0 | Lemonade Shares Slide After Results Fail to Meet High Investor Expectations |
| SNDK | -1.8 | Sandisk (SNDK) continues its crash after hours, down almost -20% on the day, and -60% off its highs in just over 1 month. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +15 | +648 | +3,242 | |
| Energy | +196 | +568 | +2,382 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +35 | +131 | -168 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +30 | +84 | -346 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +13 | +29 | -308 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +14 | -26 | -668 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +18 | -57 | -824 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -107 | -161 | +696 | |
| Utilities | -69 | -225 | -844 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -20 | -489 | -1,570 | |
| Real Estate | -126 | -499 | -1,592 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +117.8 | +125 | |
| Tariffs | +22.3 | -11 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | +15.7 | 0 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +10.3 | +21 | |
| Semiconductors | -54.0 | -41 | |
| Monetary Policy | -59.2 | -73 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -95.8 | +51 | |
| Interest Rates | -106.5 | -176 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: LEAN BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4522% is worse than the 0.9721% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +8.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.77% |
Fear looks OVERPRICED vs statistical vol (fat premium — historically a bullish carry signal) — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.28 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.68 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.62 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.61 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.56 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.56 | 2.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.45 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 262 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,136 |
| Projected close of day | 1,586 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.05× |
| Total in corpus | 134,491 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.