real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.82% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (92.8% posterior, -3.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0255%/day and dominates. Net +0.0090%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.82% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FE | +5.4 | Utilities | 16.6 | 1.65 | 69% | FirstEnergy Hits Buy Point Amid Data Center Demandprofitable |
| BLK | +4.3 | Financials | 16.8 | 1.04 | 53% | Meta and BlackRock form $14 billion venture for 1-gigawatt El Paso AI campusprofitable |
| RACE | +4.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 31.2 | 3.68 | 38% | Ferrari raises 2026 guidance after Q2 earnings beatprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| HOOD | +3.4 | Financials | 29.2 | 2.51 | 29% | Robinhood shares edge higher after record quarter for prediction markets businessprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PYPL | +3.3 | Financials | 10.1 | 0.93 | 49% | Signal: PayPal Stock Could Give Back July GainsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 47.6% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | MKTX | LONG | 35.7% | -0.34 | -0.35 | -0.68 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | HLN | LONG | 37.9% | -0.34 | -0.47 | -0.41 | Accelerating velocity +2.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | BLK | LONG | 46.2% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.4) |
| 5 | FE | LONG | 35.3% | -0.31 | -0.49 | -0.22 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 24.1% | -0.30 | -0.48 | -0.12 | Accelerating velocity +1.4 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | RKLB | LONG | 27.4% | -0.30 | -0.48 | -0.12 | Accelerating velocity +3.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | HOOD | LONG | 24.0% | -0.31 | -0.49 | -0.22 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.5); Accelerating velocity +6.6 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 125 scored calls (lower bound 35.6%), average net alpha +0.111%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53A $2.2 billion insider trading case against founders and the board is a systemic governance failure that triggers immediate institutional divestment and catastrophic loss of management credibility.
2026-07-28 19:21Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The FDA's negative response to HIMS's peptide pipeline represents a fundamental regulatory wall that threatens the core growth engine of the brand's current valuation, moving beyond routine noise into a structural risk.
2026-07-26 01:19The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35A Q2 beat and a significant raise in 2026 revenue guidance signals strong long-term demand and high visibility into the future order book, which the market typically rewards with a valuation multiple expansion.
2026-07-22 12:22Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| FE | +8.0 | 2 | FirstEnergy Hits Buy Point Amid Data Center Demand |
| HOOD | +6.6 | 6 | Robinhood shares edge higher after record quarter for prediction markets business |
| RKLB | +3.2 | 2 | Should You Buy Rocket Lab Stock After It Just Won Its Largest Launch Contract in History? |
| HLN | +2.0 | 2 | Why is Haleon stock down today? |
| PLTR | +1.4 | 2 | Palantir Aims For 12th Straight Revenue Acceleration, But U.S. Growth Is Key |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SOFI | -4.7 | SoFi Just Posted Record Growth and Profitability -- So Why Is the Stock Down 10%? |
| CVLT | -2.5 | Why Commvault Stock Crashed Today |
| AMKR | -2.3 | Amkor Technology Scores an Earnings Beat and the Stock Plummets 25% |
| ARM | -1.9 | Arm Holdings beats Q1 estimates, but shares tumble |
| CARR | -1.6 | Carrier Earnings Get a Boost From AI. The Stock Dropped Anyway. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +33 | +598 | +3,212 | |
| Energy | +215 | +555 | +2,424 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +22 | +129 | -160 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +12 | +83 | -333 | |
| Communication Services | -3 | +43 | -294 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +29 | +6 | -651 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +9 | -51 | -800 | |
| Utilities | -59 | -210 | -824 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -128 | -212 | +596 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -13 | -440 | -1,580 | |
| Real Estate | -118 | -502 | -1,594 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +133.0 | +135 | |
| Tariffs | +27.7 | -6 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | +19.2 | +3 | |
| Electric Vehicles | +17.8 | +14 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -49.0 | -56 | |
| Monetary Policy | -73.5 | -88 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -97.3 | +46 | |
| Interest Rates | -119.2 | -191 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: LEAN BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4522% is worse than the 0.9721% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +7.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.77% |
Fear looks OVERPRICED vs statistical vol (fat premium — historically a bullish carry signal) — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.28 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 0.69 | 2.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.64 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.57 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.56 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.55 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.52 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.46 | 2.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 721 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,136 |
| Projected close of day | 1,516 |
| Daily average | 1,350 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.09× |
| Total in corpus | 134,950 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.