real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.95% ± 5.76% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.34 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (84.1% posterior, -3.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0377%/day and dominates. Net +0.0251%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.95% over 30d is only 0.34 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACE | +10.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 32.0 | 3.69 | 43% | Ferrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debutprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| HOOD | +7.5 | Financials | 28.4 | 2.51 | 26% | Robinhood’s Crypto Trading Revenue Plunges 38%profitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| MKTX | +7.3 | Financials | 18.7 | 0.93 | 54% | ICE to acquire MarketAxess in $6 billion bond trading dealprofitableEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst Target |
| FE | +7.1 | Utilities | 16.7 | 1.65 | 71% | FirstEnergy Hits Buy Point Amid Data Center Demandprofitable |
| BLK | +5.7 | Financials | 16.9 | 1.04 | 55% | Meta and BlackRock form $14 billion venture for 1-gigawatt El Paso AI campusprofitable |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RKLB | LONG | 44.1% | -0.34 | -0.48 | -0.52 | Accelerating velocity +3.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | BLK | LONG | 39.1% | -0.32 | -0.51 | -0.44 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7) |
| 3 | MKTX | LONG | 35.6% | -0.33 | -0.49 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.3); Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target |
| 4 | FE | LONG | 29.4% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.33 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.2); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 35.1% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.33 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.5); Accelerating velocity +10.6 (9 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | RACE | LONG | 24.5% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.33 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.5); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 9/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 125 scored calls (lower bound 35.6%), average net alpha +0.111%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53A $2.2 billion insider trading case against founders and the board is a systemic governance failure that triggers immediate institutional divestment and catastrophic loss of management credibility.
2026-07-28 19:21Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The FDA's negative response to HIMS's peptide pipeline represents a fundamental regulatory wall that threatens the core growth engine of the brand's current valuation, moving beyond routine noise into a structural risk.
2026-07-26 01:19The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35A Q2 beat and a significant raise in 2026 revenue guidance signals strong long-term demand and high visibility into the future order book, which the market typically rewards with a valuation multiple expansion.
2026-07-22 12:22Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RACE | +11.0 | 3 | Ferrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debut |
| HOOD | +10.6 | 9 | Robinhood’s Crypto Trading Revenue Plunges 38% |
| MKTX | +9.0 | 2 | ICE to acquire MarketAxess in $6 billion bond trading deal |
| FE | +8.0 | 2 | FirstEnergy Hits Buy Point Amid Data Center Demand |
| RKLB | +3.8 | 2 | Should You Buy Rocket Lab Stock After It Just Won Its Largest Launch Contract in History? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SOFI | -4.4 | Prediction: SoFi Could Become a $50 Stock On This Date |
| WIX | -3.7 | Margin Compression Hits Wix.com Ltd. (WIX) Amid AI Concerns |
| GDDY | -3.5 | GoDaddy (GDDY) Fell on AI Disruption and Margin Concerns |
| CVLT | -3.4 | Why Commvault Stock Crashed Today |
| NCLH | -2.9 | Norwegian Cruise Line Q2 2026 earnings beat, cuts full-year outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +24 | +591 | +3,228 | |
| Energy | +172 | +473 | +2,405 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +12 | +124 | -161 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +14 | +86 | -348 | |
| Communication Services | -11 | +39 | -290 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +27 | +19 | -649 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +15 | -34 | -789 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -93 | -199 | +592 | |
| Utilities | -53 | -202 | -821 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +5 | -401 | -1,566 | |
| Real Estate | -114 | -495 | -1,597 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +101.8 | +101 | |
| Tariffs | +31.2 | -3 | |
| Consumer Spending | +21.3 | +21 | |
| Electric Vehicles | +18.0 | +14 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -42.7 | -50 | |
| Monetary Policy | -76.5 | -91 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -84.7 | +52 | |
| Interest Rates | -116.7 | -189 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: LEAN BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4522% is worse than the 0.9721% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 57% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.62% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 0.76 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.70 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.63 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.54 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.45 | 2.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 921 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,136 |
| Projected close of day | 1,492 |
| Daily average | 1,352 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.14× |
| Total in corpus | 135,150 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.