real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.69% ± 5.95% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.28 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (97.4% posterior, -2.8%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0169%/day and dominates. Net +0.0021%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.69% over 30d is only 0.28 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | +8.1 | Financials | 18.5 | 0.90 | 53% | ICE to Acquire MarketAxess for $5.7bnprofitableEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst Target |
| BLK | +7.1 | Financials | 17.1 | 1.04 | 60% | Meta and BlackRock Form $14 Billion Venture for Texas AI Data Centerprofitable |
| RACE | +6.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 31.7 | 3.74 | 44% | Ferrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debutprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +6.5 | Industrials | 42.3 | 0.79 | 55% | Bloom Energy Stock Jumps on Outlook for Revenue to DoubleprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| COIN | +5.1 | Financials | 38.8 | 1.54 | 9% | Coinbase’s Q2 Miss Hides the First Public Proof of Where Agent Payments SettleprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOFI | LONG | 39.8% | -0.39 | -0.90 | -1.53 | Accelerating velocity +8.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 2 | BLK | LONG | 38.0% | -0.32 | -0.53 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.1) |
| 3 | PLTR | LONG | 29.2% | -0.30 | -0.49 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | ARM | LONG | 27.4% | -0.30 | -0.49 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | COIN | LONG | 43.9% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.35 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Accelerating velocity +6.2 (4 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | MKTX | LONG | 21.8% | -0.37 | -0.78 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.2); Accelerating velocity +8.2 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target |
| 7 | RACE | LONG | 33.3% | -0.32 | -0.53 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 9/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | BE | LONG | 33.3% | -0.32 | -0.53 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 44.5% over 128 scored calls (lower bound 36.2%), average net alpha +0.134%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53A $2.2 billion insider trading case against founders and the board is a systemic governance failure that triggers immediate institutional divestment and catastrophic loss of management credibility.
2026-07-28 19:21Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The FDA's negative response to HIMS's peptide pipeline represents a fundamental regulatory wall that threatens the core growth engine of the brand's current valuation, moving beyond routine noise into a structural risk.
2026-07-26 01:19The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | +8.8 | 2 | Dear SoFi Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 29 |
| MKTX | +8.2 | 2 | ICE to Acquire MarketAxess for $5.7bn |
| COIN | +6.2 | 4 | Coinbase’s Q2 Miss Hides the First Public Proof of Where Agent Payments Settle |
| ARM | +5.6 | 2 | The Ultimate Bull Run for AMD, Broadcom, and Arm May Be Closer Than You Think |
| PLTR | +5.4 | 2 | Decoding PLTR Stock's Premium Valuation |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RDDT | -4.1 | CNBC Daily Open: Potential Iran tariffs, data centers and tech comments |
| SNY | -2.6 | Sanofi Shares Slide After CEO Signals Challenges to Fill Drug Pipeline |
| WIX | -2.5 | Margin Compression Hits Wix.com Ltd. (WIX) Amid AI Concerns |
| PD | -2.4 | ATB Cormark Capital Markets Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Precision Drilling (TSE:PD) Stock Price |
| CVLT | -2.2 | Why Commvault Stock Crashed Today |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +64 | +575 | +3,203 | |
| Energy | +45 | +314 | +2,409 | |
| Materials | -4 | +115 | -155 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +6 | +64 | -337 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +23 | +46 | -653 | |
| Communication Services | -13 | +43 | -301 | |
| Consumer Staples | -3 | -21 | -787 | |
| Information Technology | +4 | -147 | +592 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -210 | -803 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -6 | -300 | -1,601 | |
| Real Estate | -81 | -476 | -1,571 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +38.8 | +173 | |
| IPO | +24.8 | +23 | |
| M&A | +23.2 | +44 | |
| FinTech | +21.8 | +32 | |
| Inflation | -36.7 | -70 | |
| Monetary Policy | -41.3 | -62 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -43.0 | -52 | |
| Interest Rates | -73.3 | -154 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.5359% is worse than the 1.0344% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 60% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.77% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.66 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.63 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.63 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.60 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.56 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.52 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.45 | 2.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 65 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,607 |
| Projected close of day | 1,889 |
| Daily average | 1,346 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.44× |
| Total in corpus | 135,901 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.