real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.89% ± 5.78% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.33 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (81.1% posterior, -2.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0402%/day and dominates. Net +0.0294%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.89% over 30d is only 0.33 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +13.8 | Financials | 27.4 | 2.43 | 25% | Robinhood's latest earnings beat Wall Street estimatesprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +10.0 | Industrials | 43.3 | 0.79 | 56% | AI-Fueled Demand Signals a Bigger Opportunity for Bloom Energy (BE) InvestorsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +8.2 | Information Technology | 58.5 | 1.76 | 16% | Smart Money Shifts: Palantir (PLTR) Gains Hedge Fund Backing as Snowflake (SNOW) Sees TrimsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| STX | +5.6 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.53 | 72% | Seagate Stock Rises After Blowout Earnings FueledprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| MKTX | +5.1 | Financials | 18.5 | 0.96 | 53% | ICE to Acquire MarketAxess for $5.7bnprofitablePrice > Analyst Target |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARCB | LONG | 41.8% | -0.05 | +0.50 | +1.46 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 41.8% | -0.05 | +0.50 | +1.46 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 3 | BLKB | LONG | 40.5% | -0.30 | -0.49 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +2.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | STX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.53 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7) |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 41.0% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.35 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.9); Accelerating velocity +14.2 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 6 | SOFI | LONG | 40.8% | -0.19 | -0.04 | +0.70 | Accelerating velocity +3.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 7 | MKTX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.32 | -0.53 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 41.0% | -0.31 | -0.51 | -0.35 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.2); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 45.1% over 133 scored calls (lower bound 36.9%), average net alpha +0.153%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33A billion-dollar credit facility provides critical institutional validation and eliminates immediate funding risk, shifting the company from speculative venture to industrial scaling phase.
2026-07-22 13:35Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +14.2 | 4 | Robinhood's latest earnings beat Wall Street estimates |
| BE | +5.8 | 2 | AI-Fueled Demand Signals a Bigger Opportunity for Bloom Energy (BE) Investors |
| PLTR | +3.8 | 2 | Smart Money Shifts: Palantir (PLTR) Gains Hedge Fund Backing as Snowflake (SNOW) Sees Trims |
| SOFI | +3.6 | 2 | Why SoFi Stock Fell Today |
| BLKB | +2.0 | 2 | Why Blackbaud Stock Is Skyrocketing Today |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| HIMS | -10.6 | Hims & Hers Stock Plunges After FTC Sues Over Alleged Privacy Violations |
| LMND | -3.7 | Why Lemonade Stock Is Crashing Today |
| CAVA | -3.3 | CAVA and the shit sandwich you will eat when SPCX shares unlock (and the price pops) |
| KKR | -3.0 | US regulators cite ‘circular’ risk in investments used |
| IONQ | -3.0 | IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Quantum Are Down 30% in a Month. Is More Pain Coming for Quantum Computing Stocks? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +34 | +517 | +3,104 | |
| Energy | +15 | +208 | +2,448 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +15 | +131 | -118 | |
| Industrials | -5 | +83 | -658 | |
| Health Care | -4 | +64 | -326 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | +28 | -322 | |
| Consumer Staples | -5 | -6 | -768 | |
| Information Technology | +100 | -126 | +584 | |
| Utilities | -34 | -203 | -800 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -18 | -213 | -1,564 | |
| Real Estate | -76 | -483 | -1,582 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +108.3 | +236 | |
| Cloud Computing | +28.5 | +49 | |
| Semiconductors | +25.5 | +20 | |
| IPO | +22.7 | +22 | |
| Data Privacy | -13.2 | -15 | |
| Bond Market | -38.3 | -40 | |
| Interest Rates | -74.0 | -162 | |
| Inflation | -96.0 | -125 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.5359% is worse than the 1.0344% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 60% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.62% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.77% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.69 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.67 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.65 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.59 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.58 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.53 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.51 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 755 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,607 |
| Projected close of day | 1,385 |
| Daily average | 1,352 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.28× |
| Total in corpus | 136,591 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.