real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.85% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.3% posterior, -2.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0340%/day and dominates. Net +0.0236%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.85% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +16.0 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.43 | 26% | Goldman, Barclays, Jefferies Cut Robinhood Targets Despite Earnings BeatprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RACE | +9.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 31.3 | 3.72 | 42% | Ferrari Raises 2026 Outlook Despite Second-Quarter Earnings MissprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +7.4 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.79 | 54% | AI-Fueled Demand Signals a Bigger Opportunity for Bloom Energy (BE) InvestorsprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| STX | +7.0 | Information Technology | 15.6 | 0.53 | 71% | BofA sees more upside in Seagate’s AI storage tradeprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| DDOG | +6.9 | Information Technology | 93.2 | 1.65 | 94% | Datadog (DDOG) Jumped 7.7% Following Upward PT Revisions—the Real Story Is Who’s Driving Its GrowthprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AR | LONG | 41.4% | +0.04 | +0.47 | +1.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | RBLX | LONG | 41.4% | +0.04 | +0.47 | +1.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -14 but undervalued |
| 3 | TDG | LONG | 40.6% | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.57 | Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | STX | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.55 | -0.60 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.1) |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 16.1); Accelerating velocity +12.8 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 6 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.55 | -0.60 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.4); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | RACE | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +4.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 8 | DDOG | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.9); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Near 52w High; Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 45.3% over 137 scored calls (lower bound 37.2%), average net alpha +0.078%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 29% single-day plunge driven by fundamental monetization warnings and institutional sell ratings represents a systemic valuation reset rather than a temporary dip.
2026-07-31 17:37The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05A 9.3% equity stake from Nvidia provides a massive validation signal and ensures priority hardware access, creating an asymmetric upside that outweighs the risk of supplier dependency.
2026-07-23 07:45A $420 billion hidden debt claim is an existential systemic risk that, if verified, would fundamentally invalidate current valuation and trigger a catastrophic liquidity event.
2026-07-22 16:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +8.0 | 5 | Goldman, Barclays, Jefferies Cut Robinhood Targets Despite Earnings Beat |
| TDG | +6.0 | 2 | TransDigm (TDG) Adds Another Bolt-On: What the $1.07 Billion Prince & Izant Deal Says About Its Playbook |
| DDOG | +5.8 | 2 | Datadog (DDOG) Jumped 7.7% Following Upward PT Revisions—the Real Story Is Who’s Driving Its Growth |
| RACE | +4.8 | 2 | Ferrari Raises 2026 Outlook Despite Second-Quarter Earnings Miss |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RDDT | -13.5 | Reddit DAU decline due to AI bots and Google |
| RBLX | -13.5 | Roblox Plunges 29% in Worst Day Ever as Monetization Warning Prompts Sell Ratings |
| HIMS | -7.8 | Hims & Hers Stock Plunges After FTC Sues Over Alleged Privacy Violations |
| COIN | -6.7 | Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings miss: $359 million net loss |
| LMND | -5.0 | Lemonade's Full-Year In-Force Premium Outlook Misses Expectations. Is the Growth Story Slowing or Just Repricing? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +43 | +490 | +3,032 | |
| Energy | +65 | +244 | +2,487 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +12 | +114 | -117 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +3 | +89 | -675 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +8 | +79 | -318 | |
| Communication Services | -33 | +9 | -358 | |
| Consumer Staples | -3 | +2 | -756 | |
| Information Technology | +86 | -105 | +665 | |
| Utilities | -55 | -204 | -809 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -22 | -216 | -1,559 | |
| Real Estate | -103 | -503 | -1,591 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +60.0 | +193 | |
| Semiconductors | +60.0 | +48 | |
| Oil Prices | +40.8 | +37 | |
| Cloud Computing | +34.7 | +55 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -22.8 | -9 | |
| Bond Market | -26.2 | -31 | |
| Interest Rates | -78.5 | -169 | |
| Inflation | -94.7 | -127 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.5359% is worse than the 1.0344% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.91 | 6.4h | CRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.72 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.62 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.61 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.54 | 4.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,394 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,607 |
| Projected close of day | 1,477 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.16× |
| Total in corpus | 137,230 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.