real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.85% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.3% posterior, -2.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0340%/day and dominates. Net +0.0236%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.85% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +9.0 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.43 | 26% | Robinhood Is Now Making More Money From Prediction Markets Than Crypto Trading. Here's What That Means For Crypto InvestorsprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +8.5 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.79 | 54% | Bloom Energy Soars 28%, FuelCell Energy Rockets 27% as Q2 Results Sink In and Mizuho UpgradesprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| MKTX | +8.1 | Financials | 18.4 | 0.96 | 53% | MarketAxess (MKTX) Rockets on Merger Deal at 33% PremiumprofitablePrice > Analyst Target |
| ALAB | +7.0 | Information Technology | 67.3 | — | 53% | Astera Labs vs. Intel: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| STX | +5.9 | Information Technology | 15.6 | 0.53 | 71% | Why Analysts Are Raising Their Seagate Stock Price Targets Left and RightprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 41.2% | -0.11 | +0.19 | +2.12 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | IREN | LONG | 40.8% | -0.18 | -0.04 | +1.41 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | UPS | LONG | 40.8% | -0.18 | -0.04 | +1.41 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | STX | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9) |
| 5 | MKTX | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.1); Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.1); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.5); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 8 | ALAB | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0); Accelerating velocity +4.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 44.1% over 143 scored calls (lower bound 36.2%), average net alpha -0.124%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27A 29% single-day plunge driven by fundamental monetization warnings and institutional sell ratings represents a systemic valuation reset rather than a temporary dip.
2026-07-31 17:37The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43The simultaneous departure of the founder/CEO and a weak forecast creates a structural leadership vacuum and fundamental growth narrative collapse, outweighing any speculative 'professionalization' upside.
2026-07-24 20:05Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | +6.8 | 2 | IREN Ltd. (IREN) is Gaining Momentum. This Tech Giant May Be Playing a Big Role |
| UPS | +6.8 | 2 | UPS Says China-to-US Trade Lane Has Returned to Growth |
| KKR | +5.6 | 2 | KKR Profit Growth Challenges Private Markets’ Negative Narrative |
| MKTX | +5.4 | 2 | MarketAxess (MKTX) Rockets on Merger Deal at 33% Premium |
| ALAB | +4.6 | 2 | Astera Labs vs. Intel: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -14.5 | Coinbase Q2 earnings miss Wall Street estimates |
| RBLX | -10.2 | Roblox's algorithm, safety changes dent bookings forecast; shares slump |
| HIMS | -8.0 | Is The Sharp Drop In Hims & Hers Health Stock A Reason To Buy? |
| RDDT | -7.4 | Reddit reports a solid quarter but shows signs of AI’s impact |
| TDOC | -5.7 | Teladoc (TDOC) Stock Plummets on Disappointing Q2 Earnings Results |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +41 | +473 | +2,990 | |
| Energy | +55 | +200 | +2,542 | |
| Materials | +1 | +99 | -111 | |
| Industrials | -8 | +94 | -696 | |
| Health Care | -8 | +62 | -317 | |
| Communication Services | -34 | +1 | -358 | |
| Consumer Staples | -3 | -1 | -741 | |
| Information Technology | +96 | -59 | +687 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -5 | -140 | -1,582 | |
| Utilities | -33 | -211 | -808 | |
| Real Estate | -105 | -517 | -1,602 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +86.7 | +74 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +67.3 | +205 | |
| Cloud Computing | +50.2 | +70 | |
| Oil Prices | +33.7 | +31 | |
| Supply Chain | -16.5 | -21 | |
| Mortgage Rates | -18.2 | -19 | |
| Inflation | -40.2 | -82 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -40.5 | -27 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4677% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.69 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.69 | 3.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.68 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.61 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 751 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,483 |
| Projected close of day | 1,274 |
| Daily average | 1,354 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.43× |
| Total in corpus | 138,070 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.