real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.86% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.1% posterior, -2.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0346%/day and dominates. Net +0.0235%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.86% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +12.8 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.86 | 54% | Bloom Energy or Plug Power: Which Hot Fuel Cell Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +5.5 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.34 | 26% | Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Thinks AI Agents Could Transform the Crypto Market. Here's What That Means for InvestorsprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ALAB | +4.5 | Information Technology | 67.3 | — | 53% | Astera Labs vs. Arista Networks: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| MKTX | +4.0 | Financials | 18.4 | 1.20 | 53% | MarketAxess (MKTX) Rockets on Merger Deal at 33% PremiumprofitablePrice > Analyst Target |
| PLTR | +3.9 | Information Technology | 58.8 | 1.76 | 17% | Palantir Technologies' Next Earnings Report on Aug. 3 Could Send the Stock Soaring. Here's Why.profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBLX | LONG | 39.9% | -0.10 | +0.43 | +1.60 | Despair reversion: sentiment -10 but undervalued |
| 2 | MRNA | LONG | 39.9% | -0.10 | +0.43 | +1.60 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 3 | VIRT | LONG | 39.5% | -0.25 | -0.17 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | RDDT | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +5.2 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | ASTS | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | MKTX | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target |
| 8 | ALAB | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 42.9% over 156 scored calls (lower bound 35.4%), average net alpha -0.325%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54The collapse in user growth due to AI cannibalization represents a structural existential threat rather than a temporary dip, outweighing the potential for data licensing revenue.
2026-08-02 02:08Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | +8.0 | 4 | AST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Space-Based Network Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| VIRT | +8.0 | 3 | Virtu Stock Leads 3 US Market Volatility Winners |
| RDDT | +5.2 | 3 | Guggenheim reiterates Reddit stock rating, keeps $255 price target |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -14.4 | Crypto Market Today, July 31: Bitcoin Slides Below $63,000 and Coinbase Tumbles 10% |
| RBLX | -13.4 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| HIMS | -4.0 | Is The Sharp Drop In Hims & Hers Health Stock A Reason To Buy? |
| MRNA | -3.7 | Why is Monte Rosa Therapeutics stock plunging today? |
| ALNY | -3.2 | Is The Recent Pullback In Alnylam Stock An Opportunity Or A Trap? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +104 | +501 | +2,968 | |
| Energy | +46 | +200 | +2,584 | |
| Industrials | -12 | +98 | -672 | |
| Materials | -4 | +72 | -119 | |
| Health Care | -4 | +64 | -289 | |
| Consumer Staples | -14 | 0 | -738 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | -8 | -350 | |
| Information Technology | +18 | -50 | +739 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -8 | -124 | -1,546 | |
| Utilities | -42 | -234 | -872 | |
| Real Estate | -64 | -519 | -1,705 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +39.0 | +32 | |
| Interest Rates | +28.3 | -75 | |
| Inflation | +22.7 | -25 | |
| Tariffs | +15.8 | +2 | |
| Supply Chain | -16.7 | -22 | |
| Digital Assets | -17.5 | -2 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -17.7 | +126 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -24.8 | -18 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4677% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.74 | 3.6h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.70 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| FinTech | 0.64 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.62 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.61 | 7.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.56 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 401 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,119 |
| Projected close of day | 1,147 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.91× |
| Total in corpus | 138,839 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.