real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.86% ± 5.83% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.1% posterior, -2.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0346%/day and dominates. Net +0.0235%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.86% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +12.9 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.86 | 54% | Prediction: Bloom Energy Doubles Its Revenue Again by 2029. Here's the Math.profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.8 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.34 | 26% | Robinhood's Event Contracts Went From $10 Million to $156 Million of Quarterly Revenue in a YearprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| KKR | +7.5 | Financials | 13.8 | 0.55 | 27% | KKR Tops Record Earnings as Fundraising Hits $133B MarkconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| HSBC | +3.8 | Financials | 10.8 | 0.87 | 97% | How John O’Neill Is Steering HSBC’s Biggest Evolution Since Electronic TradingprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| ALAB | +3.6 | Information Technology | 67.3 | — | 53% | Astera Labs vs. Arista Networks: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBLX | LONG | 39.9% | -0.10 | +0.43 | +1.60 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 2 | MRNA | LONG | 39.9% | -0.10 | +0.43 | +1.60 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 3 | KKR | LONG | 40.0% | -0.24 | -0.12 | +0.47 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +7.1 (3 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection |
| 4 | ASTS | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | RKLB | LONG | 39.5% | -0.25 | -0.17 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +8.2 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.8); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | HSBC | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.8); ⚠ Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | ALAB | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 42.1% over 159 scored calls (lower bound 34.7%), average net alpha -0.356%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | +8.2 | 3 | $10,000 Invested in Rocket Lab 3 Years Ago Is Worth This Much Today, Even After a 61% Drawdown. |
| KKR | +7.1 | 3 | KKR Tops Record Earnings as Fundraising Hits $133B Mark |
| ASTS | +5.6 | 2 | AST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Space-Based Network Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| BE | +3.4 | 3 | Prediction: Bloom Energy Doubles Its Revenue Again by 2029. Here's the Math. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -14.2 | Coinbase Reports Record Share of Global Crypto Trading Volume, But Its Price Still Drops. What Does That Mean For COIN Investors? |
| RBLX | -10.7 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| RDDT | -6.7 | Reddit Beat on Revenue, Profit, and Guidance. Its U.S. Daily Users Went Backward, and the Stock Fell 21%. |
| PLD | -3.9 | Prologis Stock Faces A Tougher Test As Treasury Yields Reshape Investor Flows |
| HIMS | -3.2 | Is The Sharp Drop In Hims & Hers Health Stock A Reason To Buy? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +121 | +522 | +3,012 | |
| Energy | +30 | +183 | +2,574 | |
| Industrials | -13 | +95 | -672 | |
| Materials | -5 | +74 | -130 | |
| Health Care | -9 | +57 | -294 | |
| Consumer Staples | -14 | +6 | -732 | |
| Communication Services | -20 | -18 | -356 | |
| Information Technology | +12 | -63 | +724 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -12 | -108 | -1,546 | |
| Utilities | -40 | -235 | -880 | |
| Real Estate | -54 | -509 | -1,702 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +37.2 | -69 | |
| Monetary Policy | +21.7 | -13 | |
| Semiconductors | +17.8 | +12 | |
| Dividends | +16.2 | +19 | |
| Data Centers | -17.3 | -2 | |
| M&A | -18.8 | +8 | |
| Digital Assets | -19.0 | -3 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -57.2 | +88 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4677% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.72 | 3.5h | ELEVATED |
| Market Volatility | 0.66 | 7.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.65 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.61 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.61 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.60 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 693 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,119 |
| Projected close of day | 1,140 |
| Daily average | 1,351 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.91× |
| Total in corpus | 139,131 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.