real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.85% ± 5.84% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (84.9% posterior, -2.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0348%/day and dominates. Net +0.0232%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.85% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +11.9 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.86 | 54% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.9 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.34 | 26% | Robinhood Now Makes More Revenue From Predictions Than From Stock TradesprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| KKR | +5.2 | Financials | 13.7 | 0.55 | 27% | KKR Tops Record Earnings as Fundraising Hits $133B MarkconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| ARM | +5.1 | Information Technology | 78.1 | 1.97 | 40% | Is Arm Holdings Stock a Buy on the Bullish CPU Outlook?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| RACE | +4.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 31.1 | 3.63 | 42% | Ferrari Buyers Keep Splurging on Custom Supercars—And It's Boosting ProfitsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 41.2% | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.10 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 2 | BAM | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 4 | ARM | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | RACE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
Engine hit rate 42.3% over 163 scored calls (lower bound 35.0%), average net alpha -0.340%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAM | +4.0 | 2 | Brookfield Asset Management Stock And 2 Quality Picks Built For Uncertain Markets |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -13.6 | Coinbase Lost $359 Million and Still Grabbed a Record Market Share |
| RBLX | -7.7 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| RDDT | -5.1 | Reddit Beat on Revenue, Profit, and Guidance. Its U.S. Daily Users Went Backward, and the Stock Fell 21%. |
| SPCX | -5.0 | SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings and $99 Billion Share-Supply Challenge |
| PLD | -2.6 | Prologis Stock Faces A Tougher Test As Treasury Yields Reshape Investor Flows |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +167 | +545 | +3,036 | |
| Energy | +8 | +184 | +2,575 | |
| Industrials | -24 | +84 | -683 | |
| Materials | +0 | +81 | -134 | |
| Health Care | -14 | +53 | -296 | |
| Consumer Staples | -5 | +8 | -726 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | -41 | -354 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -18 | -85 | +701 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -1 | -100 | -1,518 | |
| Utilities | -43 | -226 | -890 | |
| Real Estate | -49 | -502 | -1,712 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +63.0 | -43 | |
| Monetary Policy | +33.3 | -3 | |
| Inflation | +21.8 | -26 | |
| Dividends | +17.8 | +21 | |
| Energy Infrastructure | -12.2 | -6 | |
| M&A | -17.2 | +9 | |
| Data Centers | -17.3 | -2 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -81.0 | +62 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.71 | 2.9h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.66 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.66 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.58 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 0 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 0 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.86× |
| Total in corpus | 139,480 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.