real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.85% ± 5.84% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (84.9% posterior, -2.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0348%/day and dominates. Net +0.0232%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.85% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +8.1 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.86 | 54% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| IONQ | +6.2 | Information Technology | -32.4 | — | 18% | IonQ closes $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition after US FTC clearanceprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| HOOD | +5.4 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.34 | 26% | Robinhood Now Makes More Revenue From Predictions Than From Stock TradesprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| KKR | +3.6 | Financials | 13.7 | 0.55 | 27% | KKR Tops Record Earnings as Fundraising Hits $133B MarkconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| ARM | +3.5 | Information Technology | 78.1 | 1.97 | 40% | Is Arm Holdings Stock a Buy on the Bullish CPU Outlook?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 40.5% | -0.35 | -0.40 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.1); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | ARM | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.5); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 42.3% over 163 scored calls (lower bound 35.0%), average net alpha -0.340%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52The $1.3bn acquisition of high-tier Permian acreage provides a significant scale shift and inventory expansion, but conviction is capped by potential 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamics and the balance sheet drag of the coûts of capital.
2026-07-25 12:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
No data in this window.
| COIN | -7.8 | Wolf vs Lajal |
| RBLX | -5.2 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| RDDT | -4.9 | Reddit Stock Tumbles as CEO Says Google Search Referrals Were 'Choppy,' Pushes Users to Its App |
| SPCX | -3.4 | SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings and $99 Billion Share-Supply Challenge |
| XPEV | -2.9 | Why is Xpeng stock sliding today? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +193 | +571 | +3,092 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -68 | +169 | +2,521 | |
| Industrials | -0 | +78 | -667 | |
| Materials | +2 | +63 | -136 | |
| Health Care | -16 | +40 | -300 | |
| Consumer Staples | -11 | +5 | -722 | |
| Communication Services | -16 | -55 | -350 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -4 | -69 | -1,498 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -19 | -99 | +666 | |
| Utilities | -19 | -209 | -892 | |
| Real Estate | -40 | -497 | -1,712 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +78.5 | -28 | |
| Monetary Policy | +31.7 | -3 | |
| Geopolitics | +22.0 | +22 | |
| Semiconductors | +21.0 | +9 | |
| Market Volatility | -17.5 | -46 | |
| Oil Prices | -23.7 | -12 | |
| Cloud Computing | -27.7 | +5 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -116.0 | +25 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.76 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.71 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.66 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.47 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.38 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 378 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,210 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.71× |
| Total in corpus | 139,858 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.