real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.85% ± 5.84% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (84.9% posterior, -2.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0348%/day and dominates. Net +0.0232%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.85% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +7.5 | Industrials | 42.0 | 0.86 | 54% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| IONQ | +5.7 | Information Technology | -32.4 | — | 18% | IonQ closes $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition after US FTC clearanceprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| KKR | +5.6 | Financials | 13.7 | 0.55 | 27% | TotalEnergies signs renewables deals with Shell and KKR in EuropeconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| BABA | +5.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 13.5 | 0.49 | 30% | Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats upprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| HOOD | +5.1 | Financials | 27.5 | 2.34 | 26% | Robinhood Now Makes More Revenue From Predictions Than From Stock TradesprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | AU | LONG | 39.6% | -0.36 | -0.23 | -1.93 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 3 | BABA | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | KKR | LONG | 40.5% | -0.35 | -0.40 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | ATKR | LONG | 39.8% | -0.34 | -0.42 | -1.13 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | IONQ | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.5); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 8 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 42.3% over 163 scored calls (lower bound 35.0%), average net alpha -0.340%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATKR | +9.0 | 2 | Atkore Jumps After Earnings Beat and Prysmian Agrees $95-a-Share Acquisition |
| RDDT | +5.4 | 3 | RDDT recovery gang |
| BABA | +4.4 | 2 | Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -7.4 | Wolf vs Lajal |
| RBLX | -4.8 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| TWST | -4.3 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| SPCX | -3.4 | SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings and $99 Billion Share-Supply Challenge |
| XPEV | -3.0 | Why is Xpeng stock sliding today? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +212 | +615 | +3,117 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -62 | +186 | +2,525 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +6 | +73 | -663 | |
| Materials | -0 | +57 | -138 | |
| Health Care | -13 | +39 | -292 | |
| Consumer Staples | -12 | +3 | -719 | |
| Communication Services | -19 | -57 | -353 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -15 | -85 | -1,513 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -30 | -118 | +655 | |
| Utilities | -21 | -215 | -903 | |
| Real Estate | -43 | -497 | -1,719 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +81.8 | -26 | |
| Inflation | +33.2 | -17 | |
| Geopolitics | +28.8 | +29 | |
| Monetary Policy | +25.3 | -9 | |
| Market Volatility | -12.3 | -41 | |
| Cloud Computing | -19.7 | +13 | |
| Oil Prices | -28.7 | -15 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -112.5 | +26 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.75 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.72 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.64 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.54 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.46 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 537 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,300 |
| Daily average | 1,346 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.74× |
| Total in corpus | 140,017 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.