real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.05% ± 5.71% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.36 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, -2.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0564%/day and dominates. Net +0.0476%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +6.9 | Industrials | 41.5 | 0.86 | 53% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| PLTR | +5.5 | Information Technology | 60.2 | 1.76 | 20% | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly resultsprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| IONQ | +5.3 | Information Technology | -34.0 | — | 21% | IonQ closes $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition after US FTC clearanceprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| KKR | +5.2 | Financials | 14.1 | 0.55 | 31% | TotalEnergies signs renewables deals with Shell and KKR in EuropeconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| BABA | +5.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.2 | 0.49 | 36% | Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats upprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 40.4% | -0.32 | -0.54 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | AU | LONG | 39.6% | -0.36 | -0.23 | -1.93 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 3 | BABA | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | KKR | LONG | 40.5% | -0.35 | -0.40 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | ATKR | LONG | 39.8% | -0.34 | -0.42 | -1.13 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | IONQ | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 40.8% | -0.33 | -0.55 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); Accelerating velocity +2.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.61 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.3% over 163 scored calls (lower bound 35.0%), average net alpha -0.340%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17A 27% plunge following a weak bookings forecast is a primary fundamental breakdown in growth expectations, not a temporary dip, signaling a systemic valuation reset.
2026-08-02 03:54Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATKR | +9.0 | 2 | Atkore Jumps After Earnings Beat and Prysmian Agrees $95-a-Share Acquisition |
| BABA | +4.4 | 2 | Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up |
| PLTR | +2.8 | 3 | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly results |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -6.9 | Wolf vs Lajal |
| TWST | -6.1 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| RBLX | -4.5 | Roblox stock plunges 27% after weak bookings forecast |
| KRYS | -3.1 | Krystal Biotech Shares Slide Despite Earnings Beat as Revenue Misses Forecasts |
| XPEV | -2.8 | Why is Xpeng stock sliding today? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +223 | +631 | +3,137 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -97 | +177 | +2,492 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +11 | +75 | -661 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +3 | +55 | -137 | |
| Health Care | -12 | +35 | -291 | |
| Consumer Staples | -17 | -1 | -721 | |
| Communication Services | -16 | -59 | -347 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -3 | -64 | -1,501 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -18 | -124 | +653 | |
| Utilities | -24 | -223 | -906 | |
| Real Estate | -51 | -498 | -1,718 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +80.7 | -26 | |
| Geopolitics | +47.3 | +46 | |
| Inflation | +36.3 | -14 | |
| Monetary Policy | +29.8 | -5 | |
| Energy Infrastructure | -10.5 | -4 | |
| Cloud Computing | -18.5 | +14 | |
| Oil Prices | -27.8 | -12 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -91.8 | +41 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.63% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.63% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.79% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.21 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 2.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.70 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.64 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.55 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.52 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 710 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,321 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.82× |
| Total in corpus | 140,190 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.