real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.89% ± 5.85% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (86.4% posterior, -1.6%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0324%/day and dominates. Net +0.0241%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.89% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +6.2 | Industrials | 44.1 | 0.86 | 57% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| PLTR | +4.9 | Information Technology | 59.7 | 1.76 | 18% | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly resultsprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| DDOG | +4.8 | Information Technology | 94.8 | 1.67 | 97% | Datadog (DDOG) Grows Revenue by Over 30% as AI Demand AcceleratesprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
| IONQ | +4.7 | Information Technology | -35.3 | — | 24% | IonQ closes $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition after US FTC clearanceprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| KKR | +4.6 | Financials | 14.0 | 0.55 | 30% | TotalEnergies signs renewables deals with Shell and KKR in EuropeconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 39.5% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.92 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 40.5% | -0.39 | -0.46 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | IONQ | LONG | 41.4% | -0.38 | -0.62 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 40.9% | -0.36 | -0.58 | -0.77 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +2.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | ATKR | LONG | 39.7% | -0.38 | -0.46 | -1.28 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | UBER | LONG | 40.5% | -0.34 | -0.55 | -0.62 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | FDXF | LONG | 39.5% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.92 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 8 | BE | LONG | 41.4% | -0.38 | -0.62 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 165 scored calls (lower bound 35.1%), average net alpha -0.331%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATKR | +9.0 | 2 | Atkore Jumps After Earnings Beat and Prysmian Agrees $95-a-Share Acquisition |
| PLTR | +2.8 | 3 | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly results |
| UBER | +1.8 | 2 | Uber Reports Earnings on Aug. 5, Followed by Lyft on Aug. 6. Here's the Better Buy Now. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -9.2 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| COIN | -6.1 | Wolf vs Lajal |
| TWST | -5.5 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| WIX | -4.1 | Diamond Hill Capital Large Cap Strategy Exited Wix.com (WIX) Amid Weak Results and AI Disruption |
| NXPI | -4.0 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +204 | +602 | +3,146 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -130 | +160 | +2,453 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +19 | +80 | -670 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +8 | +60 | -133 | |
| Health Care | -3 | +46 | -284 | |
| Consumer Staples | -23 | +0 | -722 | |
| Communication Services | -5 | -48 | -329 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +3 | -60 | -1,494 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -3 | -120 | +653 | |
| Utilities | -21 | -220 | -905 | |
| Real Estate | -53 | -500 | -1,718 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +69.3 | -38 | |
| Geopolitics | +54.0 | +54 | |
| Inflation | +44.2 | -6 | |
| Monetary Policy | +32.3 | -2 | |
| Housing Market | -9.5 | -12 | |
| Electric Vehicles | -9.7 | -4 | |
| Oil Prices | -50.0 | -30 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -55.3 | +72 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.20 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.71 | 2.2h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.65 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.53 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.52 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 959 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,319 |
| Daily average | 1,350 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.92× |
| Total in corpus | 140,439 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.