real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.88% ± 5.88% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (93.2% posterior, -1.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0233%/day and dominates. Net +0.0146%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.88% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +9.8 | Financials | 28.8 | 2.34 | 30% | Why is Robinhood Markets stock rallying today?profitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +9.5 | Information Technology | 60.0 | 1.76 | 19% | Palantir earnings will test the real shape of enterprise AIprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +5.5 | Industrials | 44.7 | 0.86 | 58% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GEV | +5.0 | Industrials | 40.4 | 1.66 | 71% | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE VernovaprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| DDOG | +4.3 | Information Technology | 95.1 | 1.67 | 98% | Datadog (DDOG) Grows Revenue by Over 30% as AI Demand AcceleratesprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | STX | LONG | 40.6% | -0.34 | -0.55 | -0.62 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | ATKR | LONG | 39.8% | -0.38 | -0.46 | -1.29 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 41.0% | -0.36 | -0.58 | -0.77 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.9); Accelerating velocity +4.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | KKR | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | GEV | LONG | 41.0% | -0.36 | -0.58 | -0.77 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | RBLX | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 8 | BE | LONG | 41.4% | -0.38 | -0.62 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 165 scored calls (lower bound 35.1%), average net alpha -0.331%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATKR | +9.0 | 2 | Atkore Jumps After Earnings Beat and Prysmian Agrees $95-a-Share Acquisition |
| PLTR | +7.8 | 5 | Palantir earnings will test the real shape of enterprise AI |
| GEV | +5.8 | 2 | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE Vernova |
| HOOD | +4.8 | 3 | Why is Robinhood Markets stock rallying today? |
| STX | +1.8 | 3 | Seagate Rallies on Strong Q4 Results and Guidance. What Does This Mean for STX Stock Here. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -8.2 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| TWST | -4.9 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| WIX | -3.7 | Diamond Hill Capital Large Cap Strategy Exited Wix.com (WIX) Amid Weak Results and AI Disruption |
| NXPI | -3.6 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
| ZTS | -3.6 | Zoetis (ZTS) Growth Weakens Amid Softening Pet Care Demand |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +166 | +591 | +3,126 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -137 | +167 | +2,452 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +18 | +70 | -675 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +10 | +59 | -133 | |
| Health Care | -2 | +38 | -287 | |
| Consumer Staples | -25 | -5 | -725 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +8 | -42 | -320 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +15 | -47 | -1,490 | |
| Information Technology | +25 | -105 | +672 | |
| Utilities | -19 | -227 | -907 | |
| Real Estate | -55 | -499 | -1,716 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +63.8 | -43 | |
| Geopolitics | +56.8 | +56 | |
| Inflation | +49.2 | -1 | |
| Monetary Policy | +32.3 | -2 | |
| Geopolitical Competition | -8.5 | -9 | |
| Housing Market | -9.5 | -12 | |
| AI Infrastructure | -12.3 | -2 | |
| Oil Prices | -53.5 | -31 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.20 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.76 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.73 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.71 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.71 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.58 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,099 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,286 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.94× |
| Total in corpus | 140,579 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.