real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.89% ± 5.87% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (92.3% posterior, -1.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0248%/day and dominates. Net +0.0160%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.89% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +21.8 | Information Technology | 60.0 | 1.76 | 19% | Palantir's Karp renews attacks on frontier AI labs that are 'trying to drug addict us'profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +8.8 | Financials | 28.7 | 2.34 | 30% | Why is Robinhood Markets stock rallying today?profitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| IONQ | +6.9 | Information Technology | -34.6 | — | 22% | IonQ vs. D-Wave Quantum: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| BE | +4.9 | Industrials | 44.6 | 0.86 | 58% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GEV | +4.5 | Industrials | 40.5 | 1.66 | 72% | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE VernovaprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 41.9% | -0.40 | -0.30 | -1.93 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 41.9% | -0.40 | -0.30 | -1.93 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | RBLX | LONG | 41.9% | -0.40 | -0.30 | -1.93 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 4 | NXPI | LONG | 41.9% | -0.40 | -0.30 | -1.93 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | GEV | LONG | 41.7% | -0.34 | -0.59 | -0.79 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.5); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | STX | LONG | 41.7% | -0.32 | -0.58 | -0.64 | Accelerating velocity +2.4 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 40.7% | -0.30 | -0.62 | -0.55 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 21.9); Accelerating velocity +24.8 (7 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | UBER | LONG | 41.7% | -0.32 | -0.58 | -0.64 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 42.5% over 167 scored calls (lower bound 35.3%), average net alpha -0.321%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Blowout Q2 numbers and a massive surge in US commercial revenue provide fundamental validation of AI monetization, though the risk of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' is discounted against the magnitude of the magnitude of the growth curve.
2026-08-03 20:41A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +24.8 | 7 | Palantir's Karp renews attacks on frontier AI labs that are 'trying to drug addict us' |
| GEV | +5.8 | 2 | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE Vernova |
| HOOD | +4.2 | 3 | Why is Robinhood Markets stock rallying today? |
| STX | +2.4 | 3 | Seagate Rallies on Strong Q4 Results and Guidance. What Does This Mean for STX Stock Here. |
| UBER | +1.8 | 2 | Uber Reports Earnings on Aug. 5, Followed by Lyft on Aug. 6. Here's the Better Buy Now. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -7.3 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| TWST | -4.3 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| WIX | -3.3 | Diamond Hill Capital Large Cap Strategy Exited Wix.com (WIX) Amid Weak Results and AI Disruption |
| NXPI | -3.2 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
| ZTS | -3.2 | Zoetis (ZTS) Growth Weakens Amid Softening Pet Care Demand |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +151 | +596 | +3,130 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -153 | +157 | +2,446 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +27 | +63 | -668 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +8 | +59 | -130 | |
| Health Care | -2 | +39 | -284 | |
| Consumer Staples | -25 | -8 | -726 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +13 | -35 | -316 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +16 | -48 | -1,488 | |
| Information Technology | +43 | -91 | +678 | |
| Utilities | -22 | -237 | -920 | |
| Real Estate | -58 | -499 | -1,724 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | +56.5 | +54 | |
| Inflation | +55.7 | +5 | |
| Interest Rates | +50.5 | -55 | |
| Monetary Policy | +34.7 | +1 | |
| Stock Market Turmoil | -8.2 | -9 | |
| Geopolitical Competition | -8.5 | -9 | |
| AI Infrastructure | -12.3 | -2 | |
| Oil Prices | -64.5 | -39 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.19 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.77 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.74 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.71 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.71 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.52 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,211 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,239 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.93× |
| Total in corpus | 140,691 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.