real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.91% ± 5.81% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.33 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.3% posterior, -2.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0356%/day and dominates. Net +0.0233%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.91% over 30d is only 0.33 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +23.5 | Information Technology | 60.0 | 1.76 | 19% | Can Palantir’s Sizzling Growth Win Over Market Bears?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.9 | Financials | 28.4 | 2.34 | 30% | Robinhood's second private markets fund targets $200 million US IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| HSBC | +5.4 | Financials | 10.9 | 0.87 | 100% | HSBC pretax profit beats estimates, boosted by higher net interest income and feesprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| IONQ | +4.6 | Information Technology | -34.6 | — | 22% | IonQ vs. D-Wave Quantum: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| ATKR | +4.1 | Industrials | 15.0 | — | 100% | Prysmian announces $3.8bn acquisition of AtkorePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | IONQ | LONG | 41.8% | -0.38 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 40.7% | -0.30 | -0.62 | -0.55 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 23.5); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (3 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 41.8% | -0.38 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 6 | HSBC | LONG | 41.8% | -0.38 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); ⚠ Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | ATKR | LONG | 41.8% | -0.38 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.6% over 172 scored calls (lower bound 36.4%), average net alpha -0.265%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A definitive $3.8bn acquisition announcement by Prysmian is a high-conviction catalyst that forces the stock price to converge toward the purchase price, creating an immediate and aggressive rally.
2026-08-04 09:15Blowout Q2 numbers and a massive surge in US commercial revenue provide fundamental validation of AI monetization, though the risk of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' is discounted against the magnitude of the magnitude of the growth curve.
2026-08-03 20:41A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +5.8 | 3 | Can Palantir’s Sizzling Growth Win Over Market Bears? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -4.8 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| TWST | -2.8 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| NXPI | -2.1 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
| ZTS | -2.1 | Zoetis (ZTS) Growth Weakens Amid Softening Pet Care Demand |
| OBDC | -2.0 | Blue Owl's BDC Already Cut Its Base Dividend to $0.31. Here's What to Watch as the Rest Report. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +96 | +583 | +3,113 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -76 | +179 | +2,455 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +4 | +51 | -125 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +2 | +38 | -663 | |
| Health Care | +2 | +25 | -281 | |
| Consumer Staples | -20 | -13 | -717 | |
| Information Technology | +56 | -40 | +676 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +16 | -44 | -321 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +2 | -48 | -1,482 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -239 | -926 | |
| Real Estate | -50 | -496 | -1,730 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +74.5 | +22 | |
| Interest Rates | +72.0 | -34 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +48.8 | +172 | |
| Geopolitics | +38.0 | +39 | |
| Financial Regulation | -9.8 | -16 | |
| Financial Conditions | -10.0 | -10 | |
| AI Infrastructure | -12.3 | -2 | |
| Oil Prices | -30.3 | -4 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.79% (80% band -1.21% to +1.42%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.19 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.70 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.67 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.61 | 1.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.47 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 216 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,230 |
| Projected close of day | 698 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.91× |
| Total in corpus | 140,926 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.