real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.91% ± 5.81% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.33 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (85.3% posterior, -2.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0356%/day and dominates. Net +0.0233%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.91% over 30d is only 0.33 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +40.4 | Information Technology | 60.0 | 1.76 | 19% | Dow hits record, Palantir stock jumps 16% on Q2 earningsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.3 | Financials | 28.4 | 2.34 | 30% | Robinhood's second private markets fund targets $200 million US IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| KKR | +5.3 | Financials | 14.4 | 0.55 | 34% | KKR to acquire Integer Holdings in $5.7bn all-cash dealconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| HSBC | +5.0 | Financials | 10.9 | 0.87 | 100% | HSBC pretax profit beats estimates, boosted by higher net interest income and feesprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| IONQ | +4.2 | Information Technology | -34.6 | — | 22% | IonQ vs. D-Wave Quantum: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?convictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.14 | +0.06 | +0.68 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | PLTR | LONG | 40.7% | -0.30 | -0.62 | -0.55 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 36.3); Accelerating velocity +19.0 (6 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | IONQ | LONG | 41.8% | -0.37 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 41.8% | -0.37 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.4); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 6 | HSBC | LONG | 41.8% | -0.37 | -0.61 | -0.97 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); ⚠ Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.6% over 172 scored calls (lower bound 36.4%), average net alpha -0.265%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive Q2 earnings beat and a 16% price jump on AI-driven revenue growth confirms AIP's commercial scaling, though the vertical move creates short-term overextension risk.
2026-08-04 11:56A definitive $3.8bn acquisition announcement by Prysmian is a high-conviction catalyst that forces the stock price to converge toward the purchase price, creating an immediate and aggressive rally.
2026-08-04 09:15A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +23.0 | 7 | Dow hits record, Palantir stock jumps 16% on Q2 earnings |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -4.4 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| SPOT | -4.2 | Spotify Stock Falls After Music Streamer Misses Earnings Goal |
| TWST | -2.6 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| NXPI | -1.9 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
| ZTS | -1.9 | Zoetis (ZTS) Growth Weakens Amid Softening Pet Care Demand |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +52 | +562 | +3,103 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -70 | +178 | +2,464 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +4 | +44 | -120 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +2 | +38 | -659 | |
| Health Care | -2 | +16 | -286 | |
| Information Technology | +72 | +0 | +673 | |
| Consumer Staples | -22 | -18 | -715 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +14 | -48 | -1,484 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +20 | -48 | -326 | |
| Utilities | -28 | -232 | -930 | |
| Real Estate | -42 | -492 | -1,720 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +82.0 | -26 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +65.5 | +188 | |
| Inflation | +63.2 | +11 | |
| Geopolitics | +36.2 | +39 | |
| Earnings | -9.8 | -4 | |
| Financial Conditions | -10.0 | -10 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | -12.3 | -29 | |
| Oil Prices | -20.3 | +6 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.77% (80% band -1.19% to +1.33%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.19 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.65 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.58 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.53 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.44 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 360 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,230 |
| Projected close of day | 862 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.88× |
| Total in corpus | 141,070 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.