real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.92% ± 5.90% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (94.9% posterior, -0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0204%/day and dominates. Net +0.0160%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.92% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +59.7 | Information Technology | 73.2 | 1.76 | 52% | The 1 Number That Shows Why Palantir’s Critics Are Completely WrongprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HSBC | +8.1 | Financials | 10.9 | 0.87 | 98% | HSBC H1 2026 earnings beat estimates, resumes share buybacksprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| GEV | +6.7 | Industrials | 40.9 | 1.66 | 73% | GE Vernova Set to Be Biggest Winner From AI Data Center’s Massive Power ShortfallprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +6.3 | Financials | 29.0 | 2.34 | 32% | Robinhood's second private markets fund targets $200 million US IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| IONQ | +5.5 | Information Technology | -36.8 | — | 26% | BigBear.ai vs. IonQ: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026, the Company Focused on Artificial Intelligence or the Quantum Computing Innovator?convictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | ON | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | INDV | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 4 | CRWV | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | BRBR | LONG | 43.6% | +0.12 | +0.80 | +2.49 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | BTDR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.09 | +0.01 | +0.86 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | AAOI | LONG | 42.4% | -0.09 | +0.01 | +0.86 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | IONQ | LONG | 42.6% | -0.14 | +0.06 | +0.68 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.9% over 173 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.243%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive Q2 blowout that creates a clear divergence between Palantir and AI software peers, proving execution capability while the market is currently absorbing the momentum spike.
2026-08-04 13:25A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51The merger of Supernus and Indivior creates a scaled CNS entity with significant synergy potential, but conviction is slightly tempered by the same 'buy the rumor, sell the news' risks identified in recent post-mortems.
2026-08-04 12:16The merger of Supernus and Indivior creates a scaled CNS powerhouse with significant synergy potential, though conviction is slightly tempered by integration risk and regulatory baggage associated with Indivior.
2026-08-04 12:14A definitive $3.8bn acquisition announcement by Prysmian is a high-conviction catalyst that forces the stock price to converge toward the purchase price, creating an immediate and aggressive rally.
2026-08-04 09:15A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +38.8 | 13 | The 1 Number That Shows Why Palantir’s Critics Are Completely Wrong |
| BTDR | +8.0 | 2 | Bitdeer Lands $4.7B AI Data Center Deal, Expands Beyond Bitcoin Mining |
| HSBC | +7.0 | 2 | HSBC H1 2026 earnings beat estimates, resumes share buybacks |
| AAOI | +6.4 | 2 | Applied Optoelectronics Rockets 17%, Coherent Climbs 11%, Lumentum Gains 6% on Reported U.S. Ban of Chinese Optics |
| W | +4.0 | 3 | Wayfair quarterly beat driven by accelerating US sales, specialty brand growth |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BRBR | -4.0 | BellRing Brands cuts earnings forecast amid inventory issues |
| RBLX | -3.8 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| SNDK | -3.8 | Situational Awareness Lost 67%. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Sandisk (SNDK) Show How Leverage Turned an AI Bet Into a Fire Sale |
| SPOT | -3.4 | Spotify tops 300 million premium subscribers as profit surges |
| APO | -2.9 | Apollo’s Private-Equity Business Delivers Weak Results |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +20 | +519 | +3,062 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -20 | +178 | +2,464 | |
| Information Technology | +78 | +64 | +692 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +8 | +61 | -642 | |
| Materials | +0 | +43 | -112 | |
| Health Care | -0 | +20 | -274 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -34 | -720 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +6 | -43 | -1,476 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +8 | -59 | -332 | |
| Utilities | -30 | -246 | -928 | |
| Real Estate | -46 | -506 | -1,734 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +73.0 | -35 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +65.2 | +188 | |
| Inflation | +44.2 | -6 | |
| Semiconductors | +36.0 | +37 | |
| Fintech | -8.3 | -1 | |
| Foreign Investment | -9.0 | -3 | |
| Labor Market | -9.2 | -9 | |
| Financial Conditions | -10.0 | -10 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.40% (80% band -1.27% to +1.00%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 1.03 | 6.2h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.72 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.70 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.66 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.64 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.59 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 696 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,230 |
| Projected close of day | 1,027 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.83× |
| Total in corpus | 141,406 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.