real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.87% ± 6.01% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (98.7% posterior, +0.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0141%/day and dominates. Net +0.0085%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.87% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +77.6 | Information Technology | 75.6 | 1.76 | 57% | Palantir Soars 27% and Caterpillar Helps Lift the Dow 800 PointsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HSBC | +7.5 | Financials | 10.8 | 0.87 | 96% | HSBC H1 2026 earnings beat estimates, resumes share buybacksprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| GEV | +6.2 | Industrials | 40.8 | 1.66 | 73% | GE Vernova Set to Be Biggest Winner From AI Data Center’s Massive Power ShortfallprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +5.8 | Financials | 29.3 | 2.34 | 33% | Robinhood's second private markets fund targets $200 million US IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| IONQ | +5.1 | Information Technology | -37.1 | — | 27% | BigBear.ai vs. IonQ: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026, the Company Focused on Artificial Intelligence or the Quantum Computing Innovator?convictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 43.6% | +0.13 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 2 | ON | LONG | 43.6% | +0.13 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | INDV | LONG | 43.6% | +0.13 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 4 | RBLX | LONG | 43.6% | +0.13 | +0.79 | +2.47 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 5 | BRBR | LONG | 43.6% | +0.13 | +0.79 | +2.47 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | BTDR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.07 | -0.01 | +0.82 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | UPS | LONG | 42.6% | -0.07 | -0.01 | +0.82 | Accelerating velocity +1.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | AAOI | LONG | 42.6% | -0.07 | -0.01 | +0.82 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.9% over 173 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.243%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51The merger of Supernus and Indivior creates a scaled CNS entity with significant synergy potential, but conviction is slightly tempered by the same 'buy the rumor, sell the news' risks identified in recent post-mortems.
2026-08-04 12:16The merger of Supernus and Indivior creates a scaled CNS powerhouse with significant synergy potential, though conviction is slightly tempered by integration risk and regulatory baggage associated with Indivior.
2026-08-04 12:14A definitive $3.8bn acquisition announcement by Prysmian is a high-conviction catalyst that forces the stock price to converge toward the purchase price, creating an immediate and aggressive rally.
2026-08-04 09:15A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +59.8 | 18 | Palantir Soars 27% and Caterpillar Helps Lift the Dow 800 Points |
| BTDR | +8.0 | 2 | Bitdeer Lands $4.7B AI Data Center Deal, Expands Beyond Bitcoin Mining |
| AAOI | +6.4 | 2 | Applied Optoelectronics Rockets 17%, Coherent Climbs 11%, Lumentum Gains 6% on Reported U.S. Ban of Chinese Optics |
| W | +4.0 | 3 | Wayfair quarterly beat driven by accelerating US sales, specialty brand growth |
| UPS | +1.0 | 2 | Is United Parcel Service (UPS) the Best Dividend Stock in the Industrial Sector? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -8.9 | Deutsche Bank sees jarring signs in Roblox as stock crashes |
| BRBR | -3.7 | BellRing Brands cuts earnings forecast amid inventory issues |
| SNDK | -3.5 | Situational Awareness Lost 67%. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Sandisk (SNDK) Show How Leverage Turned an AI Bet Into a Fire Sale |
| SPOT | -3.2 | Spotify tops 300 million premium subscribers as profit surges |
| APO | -2.7 | Apollo’s Private-Equity Business Delivers Weak Results |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +17 | +516 | +3,053 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -11 | +165 | +2,455 | |
| Information Technologybreakout | +82 | +109 | +714 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +18 | +60 | -633 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +7 | +42 | -110 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +9 | +21 | -271 | |
| Consumer Staples | -20 | -36 | -721 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -9 | -44 | -1,474 | |
| Communication Services | -1 | -58 | -323 | |
| Utilities | -37 | -257 | -938 | |
| Real Estate | -52 | -520 | -1,752 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +67.7 | +194 | |
| Interest Rates | +62.7 | -46 | |
| Semiconductors | +56.3 | +59 | |
| Corporate Profits | +32.5 | +33 | |
| Financial Conditions | -10.0 | -10 | |
| Fintech | -10.2 | -3 | |
| Natural Disaster | -10.7 | -14 | |
| Consumer Spending | -11.5 | -8 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.43% (80% band -1.29% to +1.01%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 66% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.84 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.67 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.64 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.63 | 2.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.57 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 2.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 846 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,230 |
| Projected close of day | 1,086 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.84× |
| Total in corpus | 141,556 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.