real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.88% ± 5.99% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (98.6% posterior, +0.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0145%/day and dominates. Net +0.0093%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.88% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +72.9 | Information Technology | 75.0 | 1.76 | 55% | Thank you PLTRprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HSBC | +6.9 | Financials | 10.8 | 0.88 | 96% | HSBC H1 2026 earnings beat estimates, resumes share buybacksprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| INDV | +6.4 | Health Care | 8.5 | — | 71% | Supernus, Indivior merge to beef up brain drug portfolioconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| GEV | +5.7 | Industrials | 40.9 | 1.66 | 73% | GE Vernova Set to Be Biggest Winner From AI Data Center’s Massive Power ShortfallprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +5.4 | Financials | 29.4 | 2.34 | 33% | Robinhood's second private markets fund targets $200 million US IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 43.8% | +0.14 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | ON | LONG | 43.8% | +0.14 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | IONQ | LONG | 43.8% | +0.14 | +0.79 | +2.47 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | RBLX | LONG | 43.8% | +0.14 | +0.79 | +2.47 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 5 | BRBR | LONG | 43.8% | +0.14 | +0.79 | +2.47 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | INDV | LONG | 42.8% | -0.09 | +0.03 | +0.72 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | BTDR | LONG | 42.7% | -0.07 | -0.00 | +0.82 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | SUPN | LONG | 42.7% | -0.07 | -0.00 | +0.82 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 174 scored calls (lower bound 36.5%), average net alpha -0.255%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The merger with Supernus is a transformative portfolio expansion into the CNS space, but conviction is tempered by integration risk and potential dilution typical of such corporate actions.
2026-08-04 19:15The merger of Supernus and Indivior creates a significant CNS powerhouse with scale and synergies, but conviction is slightly tempered by the same 'buy the rumor, sell the news' risks and integration complexities identified in the recent lessons learned.
2026-08-04 19:14An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A definitive $3.8bn acquisition announcement by Prysmian is a high-conviction catalyst that forces the stock price to converge toward the purchase price, creating an immediate and aggressive rally.
2026-08-04 09:15A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +57.2 | 18 | Thank you PLTR |
| BTDR | +8.0 | 2 | Bitdeer Lands $4.7B AI Data Center Deal, Expands Beyond Bitcoin Mining |
| SUPN | +7.0 | 2 | Supernus, Indivior merge to beef up brain drug portfolio |
| INDV | +7.0 | 2 | Supernus, Indivior merge to beef up brain drug portfolio |
| AAOI | +6.4 | 2 | Applied Optoelectronics Rockets 17%, Coherent Climbs 11%, Lumentum Gains 6% on Reported U.S. Ban of Chinese Optics |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -8.3 | Deutsche Bank sees jarring signs in Roblox as stock crashes |
| BRBR | -3.4 | BellRing Brands cuts earnings forecast amid inventory issues |
| SNDK | -3.3 | Situational Awareness Lost 67%. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Sandisk (SNDK) Show How Leverage Turned an AI Bet Into a Fire Sale |
| SPOT | -2.9 | Spotify tops 300 million premium subscribers as profit surges |
| APO | -2.5 | Apollo’s Private-Equity Business Delivers Weak Results |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +35 | +512 | +3,049 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -28 | +167 | +2,454 | |
| Information Technologybreakout | +76 | +105 | +715 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +25 | +63 | -626 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +3 | +41 | -111 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +5 | +19 | -276 | |
| Consumer Staples | -17 | -33 | -724 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +3 | -38 | -1,463 | |
| Communication Services | -4 | -56 | -324 | |
| Utilities | -39 | -258 | -937 | |
| Real Estate | -60 | -522 | -1,757 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +63.7 | +191 | |
| Interest Rates | +61.0 | -47 | |
| Semiconductors | +48.7 | +52 | |
| Corporate Profits | +41.5 | +42 | |
| Natural Disaster | -10.7 | -14 | |
| Cloud Computing | -11.8 | +25 | |
| Consumer Spending | -12.5 | -9 | |
| Oil Prices | -19.0 | +7 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.34% (80% band -1.35% to +0.92%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 62% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.06 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 1.00 | 5.9h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.70 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.63 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.63 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 934 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,230 |
| Projected close of day | 1,086 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.83× |
| Total in corpus | 141,644 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.