real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.88% ± 5.96% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (98.1% posterior, +0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0153%/day and dominates. Net +0.0107%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.88% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +69.1 | Information Technology | 77.7 | 1.76 | 56% | Palantir lifts annual revenue forecast on steady demand for AI-powered data analyticsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| INDV | +9.8 | Health Care | 8.4 | — | 71% | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger AnnouncementconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| ARM | +7.3 | Information Technology | 91.4 | 1.97 | 51% | SoftBank jumps 10% as Asia tech stocks track Wall Street AI rallyprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| GM | +5.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 6.0 | 0.35 | 91% | CNBC Daily Open: Markets rally on hopes of Iran-U.S. Strait of Hormuz dealPEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15Near 52w HighUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HSBC | +4.7 | Financials | 11.2 | 0.88 | 96% | HSBC H1 2026 earnings beat estimates, resumes share buybacksprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | RIVN | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued |
| 4 | RBLX | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 5 | IONQ | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | DEO | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | INDV | LONG | 42.8% | -0.16 | -0.29 | -0.16 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +9.2 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | SUPN | LONG | 41.3% | -0.15 | -0.37 | +0.08 | Accelerating velocity +6.2 (2 mentions/12h); M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 175 scored calls (lower bound 36.9%), average net alpha -0.239%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $3.8B buyout offer provides a hard valuation floor and an immediate price target, overriding temporary operational slumps in Q2 earnings.
2026-08-05 05:34The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDV | +9.2 | 3 | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger Announcement |
| GM | +8.0 | 3 | CNBC Daily Open: Markets rally on hopes of Iran-U.S. Strait of Hormuz deal |
| ARM | +7.2 | 2 | SoftBank jumps 10% as Asia tech stocks track Wall Street AI rally |
| SUPN | +6.2 | 2 | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger Announcement |
| PLTR | +4.2 | 11 | Palantir lifts annual revenue forecast on steady demand for AI-powered data analytics |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RIVN | -5.7 | Rivian's E-Bike Spinoff Finally Starts Shipping — Months After Angry Customers Began Canceling Orders: Report |
| RBLX | -5.4 | Deutsche Bank sees jarring signs in Roblox as stock crashes |
| PYPL | -4.3 | Coinbase missed again, Strategy sells Bitcoin, and is PayPal for sale? |
| DEO | -4.2 | CNBC UK Exchange: Diageo’s turnaround test |
| FIS | -4.0 | FIS Q2 2026 slides: strong cash flow offsets capital markets weakness |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +28 | +515 | +3,018 | |
| Information Technology | +91 | +163 | +726 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -39 | +132 | +2,478 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +30 | +52 | -624 | |
| Materials | -0 | +46 | -130 | |
| Health Care | +1 | +6 | -284 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +19 | -25 | -1,444 | |
| Consumer Staples | -23 | -53 | -722 | |
| Communication Services | -8 | -67 | -332 | |
| Utilities | -30 | -246 | -924 | |
| Real Estate | -66 | -520 | -1,762 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +96.5 | +224 | |
| Corporate Profits | +77.5 | +78 | |
| Interest Rates | +62.7 | -41 | |
| Geopolitics | +43.3 | +50 | |
| Crude Oil Prices | -8.5 | -3 | |
| Bitcoin | -10.8 | -11 | |
| Natural Disaster | -11.2 | -14 | |
| Consumer Spending | -12.3 | -9 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.36% (80% band -1.58% to +0.99%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 62% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.06 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.97 | 6.1h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.71 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.63 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.53 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 241 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,142 |
| Projected close of day | 1,539 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.14× |
| Total in corpus | 142,093 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.