real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.88% ± 5.96% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.32 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (98.1% posterior, +0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0153%/day and dominates. Net +0.0107%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.88% over 30d is only 0.32 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +71.4 | Information Technology | 77.7 | 1.76 | 56% | US stocks hit records as profits keep piling up for Palantir and others, while oil prices easeprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ON | +10.5 | Information Technology | 17.9 | 0.27 | 40% | ON Semiconductor Reports Higher Profit, Revenue on Growing AI Data Center BusinessconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| INDV | +9.1 | Health Care | 8.4 | — | 71% | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger AnnouncementprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| ARM | +6.8 | Information Technology | 91.4 | 1.97 | 51% | SoftBank jumps 10% as Asia tech stocks track Wall Street AI rallyprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| IONQ | +6.0 | Information Technology | -37.1 | — | 27% | Why IonQ Stock Popped TodayconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | RIVN | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued |
| 4 | DEO | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | BBBY | LONG | 44.0% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.56 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | ON | LONG | 42.8% | -0.16 | -0.29 | -0.16 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +7.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | IONQ | LONG | 43.0% | -0.15 | -0.28 | -0.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | INDV | LONG | 42.2% | -0.30 | -0.60 | -0.86 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.1); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 175 scored calls (lower bound 36.9%), average net alpha -0.239%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $3.8B buyout offer provides a hard valuation floor and an immediate price target, overriding temporary operational slumps in Q2 earnings.
2026-08-05 05:34The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +10.0 | 10 | US stocks hit records as profits keep piling up for Palantir and others, while oil prices ease |
| GM | +8.0 | 3 | CNBC Daily Open: Markets rally on hopes of Iran-U.S. Strait of Hormuz deal |
| ON | +7.2 | 2 | ON Semiconductor Reports Higher Profit, Revenue on Growing AI Data Center Business |
| ARM | +7.2 | 2 | SoftBank jumps 10% as Asia tech stocks track Wall Street AI rally |
| INDV | +5.6 | 2 | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger Announcement |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -5.0 | Deutsche Bank sees jarring signs in Roblox as stock crashes |
| RIVN | -4.2 | Rivian Cuts Spending by $250 Million -- Here's What the New Guidance Means for Investors |
| DEO | -3.9 | CNBC UK Exchange: Diageo’s turnaround test |
| PYPL | -3.9 | Coinbase missed again, Strategy sells Bitcoin, and is PayPal for sale? |
| FIS | -3.7 | FIS Q2 2026 slides: strong cash flow offsets capital markets weakness |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +24 | +506 | +2,975 | |
| Information Technology | +96 | +190 | +732 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -58 | +109 | +2,527 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +36 | +50 | -631 | |
| Materials | +1 | +44 | -131 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +2 | -4 | -285 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +20 | -12 | -1,445 | |
| Consumer Staples | -27 | -61 | -725 | |
| Communication Services | -8 | -72 | -336 | |
| Utilities | -29 | -242 | -923 | |
| Real Estate | -61 | -508 | -1,759 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +96.7 | +226 | |
| Corporate Profits | +77.5 | +78 | |
| Interest Rates | +65.3 | -37 | |
| Geopolitics | +50.0 | +57 | |
| Taxation | -10.0 | -12 | |
| Bitcoin | -10.8 | -11 | |
| Consumer Spending | -11.3 | -8 | |
| Oil Prices | -18.3 | +5 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.36% (80% band -1.64% to +1.00%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 62% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.06 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.98 | 6.3h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.72 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.63 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.60 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.58 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 337 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,142 |
| Projected close of day | 1,418 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.18× |
| Total in corpus | 142,189 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.