real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.07% ± 5.79% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.36 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (83.6% posterior, +0.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0372%/day and dominates. Net +0.0351%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +66.2 | Information Technology | 69.9 | 1.76 | 53% | Palantir Crushes Earnings in Q2. Is the Stock Heading Back to $200?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +9.8 | Industrials | 48.0 | 0.86 | 63% | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's WorthprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ON | +9.8 | Information Technology | 17.3 | 0.27 | 37% | Price Prediction: ON Semiconductor Stock Looks Ready for Its Next MoveconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| INDV | +6.7 | Health Care | 8.4 | — | 81% | Supernus Shares Jump After Revenue Beat, Higher Guidance and Indivior Merger AnnouncementprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| GM | +5.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 6.0 | 0.35 | 92% | ‘Made in Michigan again’: White House says US manufacturing is roaring back as GM, Ford pour billions into factoriesPEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15Near 52w HighUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPRI | LONG | 43.4% | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.45 | Despair reversion: sentiment -11 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | ON | LONG | 42.7% | -0.14 | -0.28 | -0.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +9.2 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | RIVN | LONG | 43.4% | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.45 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | PRU | LONG | 43.4% | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.45 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | IONQ | LONG | 43.4% | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.45 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | RKLB | LONG | 42.6% | -0.15 | -0.28 | -0.09 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | INDV | LONG | 42.4% | -0.28 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks) |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 41.3% | -0.23 | -0.62 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 66.4); Accelerating velocity +8.4 (9 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 182 scored calls (lower bound 36.9%), average net alpha -0.242%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49A $3.8B buyout offer provides a hard valuation floor and an immediate price target, overriding temporary operational slumps in Q2 earnings.
2026-08-05 05:34The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON | +9.2 | 3 | Price Prediction: ON Semiconductor Stock Looks Ready for Its Next Move |
| BE | +5.8 | 2 | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's Worth |
| RKLB | +5.0 | 2 | Tesla vs. Rocket Lab: Which Is the Better Innovation Stock to Own for the Next 10 Years? |
| GM | +3.8 | 2 | ‘Made in Michigan again’: White House says US manufacturing is roaring back as GM, Ford pour billions into factories |
| PLTR | +3.6 | 8 | Palantir Crushes Earnings in Q2. Is the Stock Heading Back to $200? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CPRI | -10.2 | Capri Holdings beats first-quarter forecasts but lowers revenue guidance |
| UBER | -9.2 | Uber Stock Falls After Softer Profit Outlook |
| RIVN | -6.9 | Why Rivian Stock Fell 12% Last Month |
| RBLX | -3.7 | Deutsche Bank sees jarring signs in Roblox as stock crashes |
| TBLA | -3.5 | Why is Taboola stock tumbling today? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +44 | +512 | +2,914 | |
| Information Technology | +81 | +259 | +616 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -50 | +69 | +2,690 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +18 | +51 | -650 | |
| Materials | -1 | +29 | -122 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +25 | -8 | -1,434 | |
| Health Care | -7 | -13 | -270 | |
| Consumer Staples | -20 | -70 | -712 | |
| Communication Services | -13 | -90 | -336 | |
| Utilities | -25 | -239 | -936 | |
| Real Estate | -53 | -498 | -1,762 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +107.7 | +249 | |
| Interest Rates | +58.3 | -41 | |
| Corporate Profits | +55.0 | +60 | |
| Geopolitics | +45.2 | +54 | |
| Global Financial Crisis | -10.0 | -10 | |
| Stock Market Crash | -13.8 | -15 | |
| Oil Prices | -20.8 | 0 | |
| Cloud Computing | -22.5 | +17 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.37% (80% band -1.70% to +1.02%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.75% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.08 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.90 | 5.4h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.76 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.69 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.66 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.60 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.57 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 969 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,142 |
| Projected close of day | 1,323 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.09× |
| Total in corpus | 142,821 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.