real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.07% ± 5.79% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.36 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (84.0% posterior, +0.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0365%/day and dominates. Net +0.0344%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +65.5 | Information Technology | 69.3 | 1.76 | 52% | Markets News, Aug. 4, 2026: S&P 500, Dow Close at Records as Palantir, Caterpillar Shares Jump; Oil Drops on US-Iran Deal OptimismprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ON | +12.0 | Information Technology | 17.1 | 0.27 | 36% | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat ExpectationsconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| BE | +8.7 | Industrials | 48.4 | 0.86 | 64% | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's WorthprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HSBC | +6.9 | Financials | 10.5 | 0.84 | 88% | HSBC Profits as Global Trade Gets More ComplexprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| GM | +5.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 6.1 | 0.35 | 93% | GM, SAIC extend China joint venture through to 2047PEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15Near 52w HighUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPRI | LONG | 43.3% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.46 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | ON | LONG | 42.7% | -0.14 | -0.28 | -0.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.1); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +12.2 (4 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | RIVN | LONG | 43.3% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.46 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | IONQ | LONG | 43.3% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.46 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | SOFI | LONG | 43.3% | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.46 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 6 | SPOT | LONG | 42.6% | -0.27 | -0.57 | -0.67 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | HSBC | LONG | 42.4% | -0.28 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0) |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.28 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 62.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.3% over 183 scored calls (lower bound 37.3%), average net alpha -0.224%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49A $3.8B buyout offer provides a hard valuation floor and an immediate price target, overriding temporary operational slumps in Q2 earnings.
2026-08-05 05:34The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON | +7.4 | 3 | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat Expectations |
| BE | +6.4 | 2 | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's Worth |
| GM | +3.2 | 2 | GM, SAIC extend China joint venture through to 2047 |
| SPOT | +1.8 | 2 | Spotify Climbs to 300 Million Premium Subscribers |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CPRI | -9.1 | Capri Holdings beats first-quarter forecasts but lowers revenue guidance |
| SEDG | -9.0 | Why SolarEdge Stock Crashed After Earnings |
| UBER | -8.2 | Uber Stock Falls After Softer Profit Outlook |
| SOFI | -6.7 | SoFi Stock Sinks 50%, But Most Analysts Still Aren’t Bullish |
| RIVN | -6.2 | Why Rivian Stock Fell 12% Last Month |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +56 | +524 | +2,923 | |
| Information Technology | +72 | +284 | +588 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +11 | +46 | -648 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -14 | +38 | +2,710 | |
| Materials | -2 | +22 | -119 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +21 | -2 | -1,439 | |
| Health Care | -11 | -16 | -270 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -74 | -710 | |
| Communication Services | -15 | -88 | -335 | |
| Utilities | -37 | -238 | -941 | |
| Real Estate | -57 | -494 | -1,761 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +90.8 | +239 | |
| Interest Rates | +59.5 | -37 | |
| Corporate Profits | +41.0 | +48 | |
| Geopolitics | +37.7 | +48 | |
| Cloud Computing | -10.7 | +28 | |
| Market Crash | -12.2 | -15 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -12.7 | -17 | |
| Stock Market Crash | -13.8 | -15 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.38% (80% band -1.71% to +1.03%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.87 | 4.6h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.76 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.65 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.64 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.56 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,137 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,142 |
| Projected close of day | 1,324 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.08× |
| Total in corpus | 142,989 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.