real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +2.03% ± 5.81% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.35 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (86.3% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0331%/day and dominates. Net +0.0305%/day. Suppressed: expected +2.03% over 30d is only 0.35 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +67.2 | Information Technology | 72.4 | 1.76 | 51% | Palantir CEO Alex Karp Says Frontier AI Labs Will Steal Your IP, Your Know-How, and Your ExpertiseprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ON | +10.3 | Information Technology | 17.0 | 0.27 | 36% | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat ExpectationsconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| BE | +7.5 | Industrials | 47.9 | 0.86 | 63% | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's WorthprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HSBC | +5.9 | Financials | 10.8 | 0.87 | 88% | HSBC Profits as Global Trade Gets More ComplexprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| GM | +5.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 6.1 | 0.35 | 93% | GM, SAIC extend China joint venture through to 2047PEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15Near 52w HighUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ON | LONG | 43.1% | -0.12 | -0.29 | -0.26 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +2.6 (2 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 43.8% | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.43 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | SOFI | LONG | 43.8% | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.43 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | SNDK | LONG | 42.8% | -0.14 | -0.29 | -0.11 | Accelerating velocity +2.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | HSBC | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9) |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 67.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.5); Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 8 | GM | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); Accelerating velocity +3.2 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Near 52w High; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 184 scored calls (lower bound 37.0%), average net alpha -0.233%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49A $3.8B buyout offer provides a hard valuation floor and an immediate price target, overriding temporary operational slumps in Q2 earnings.
2026-08-05 05:34The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33An 'otherworldly' earnings beat and explosive US commercial growth signal a fundamental regime change in AI adoption, though the 30% vertical spike suggests significant short-term mean reversion risk.
2026-08-04 17:20A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +6.4 | 2 | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's Worth |
| GM | +3.2 | 2 | GM, SAIC extend China joint venture through to 2047 |
| SNDK | +2.8 | 2 | Sndk is on crack |
| ON | +2.6 | 2 | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat Expectations |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CPRI | -7.8 | Capri Holdings beats first-quarter forecasts but lowers revenue guidance |
| SEDG | -7.7 | Why SolarEdge Stock Crashed After Earnings |
| SOFI | -5.8 | SoFi Stock Sinks 50%, But Most Analysts Still Aren’t Bullish |
| RIVN | -5.3 | Why Rivian Stock Fell 12% Last Month |
| UBER | -4.9 | Uber Stock: This Upcoming Catalyst Could Send It Higher |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +65 | +533 | +2,929 | |
| Information Technology | +74 | +310 | +582 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +5 | +41 | -654 | |
| Energybreakout | +27 | +40 | +2,761 | |
| Materials | -4 | +12 | -127 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +8 | -2 | -1,439 | |
| Health Care | -12 | -20 | -271 | |
| Consumer Staples | -33 | -89 | -718 | |
| Communication Services | -17 | -92 | -343 | |
| Utilities | -45 | -245 | -950 | |
| Real Estate | -64 | -489 | -1,768 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +67.0 | +219 | |
| Interest Rates | +48.7 | -43 | |
| Geopolitics | +47.7 | +60 | |
| Corporate Earnings | +30.2 | +34 | |
| Labor Market | -9.5 | -11 | |
| Global Financial Crisis | -10.0 | -10 | |
| Market Crash | -12.2 | -15 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.3 | -25 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.39% (80% band -1.69% to +1.03%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.86 | 5.5h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.76 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.65 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.63 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.61 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 0 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 0 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.14× |
| Total in corpus | 143,242 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.