real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +2.03% ± 5.81% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.35 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (86.3% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0331%/day and dominates. Net +0.0305%/day. Suppressed: expected +2.03% over 30d is only 0.35 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +61.5 | Information Technology | 68.9 | 1.76 | 51% | Palantir Just Guided to 134% U.S. Commercial Growth. After a 15% Pop, the Stock Costs 42 Times Revenue.profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ON | +7.8 | Information Technology | 17.0 | 0.27 | 36% | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat ExpectationsconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| FSLR | +6.0 | Information Technology | 10.3 | 0.55 | 42% | SolarEdge Surges 8%, Enphase Climbs 5%, First Solar Rises 4% on Pro-Solar Policy HopesconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| BE | +5.7 | Industrials | 47.9 | 0.86 | 63% | Bloom Energy's AI Data Center Backlog Just Grew Again -- Here's What It's WorthprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| HSBC | +4.6 | Financials | 10.5 | 0.85 | 88% | HSBC Profits as Global Trade Gets More ComplexprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.59 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +7.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | SPOT | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.59 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (5 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | HSBC | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6) |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 5 | FSLR | LONG | 40.9% | -0.40 | -0.81 | -1.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 40.3% | -0.20 | -0.67 | -0.70 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 62.0); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | ON | LONG | 40.9% | -0.40 | -0.81 | -1.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 8 | OBDC | LONG | 38.7% | -0.56 | -1.01 | -2.27 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
Engine hit rate 44.1% over 186 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.214%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | +7.2 | 2 | Wayfair Shares Jump on Higher Demand in U.S. Furniture Business |
| WIX | +6.6 | 2 | Wix Q2 results show steady core business and improving Base44 economics |
| SPOT | +1.6 | 4 | Spotify hits record 300 million premium subscribers |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| UBER | -7.1 | Is Waymo's Latest Announcement Bad News for Uber? |
| RIVN | -6.7 | Rivian's Improving Quarter Leaned On Help That Is Running Out |
| CPRI | -5.9 | Capri Holdings beats first-quarter forecasts but lowers revenue guidance |
| BRBR | -4.4 | BellRing Brands cuts earnings forecast amid inventory issues |
| SOFI | -4.4 | SoFi Stock Sinks 50%, But Most Analysts Still Aren’t Bullish |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +55 | +554 | +2,921 | |
| Information Technology | +77 | +347 | +568 | |
| Industrials | -1 | +37 | -650 | |
| Materials | -6 | +5 | -121 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -10 | -15 | -1,441 | |
| Health Care | -2 | -26 | -261 | |
| Energy | +34 | -30 | +2,762 | |
| Communication Services | -15 | -95 | -338 | |
| Consumer Staples | -33 | -104 | -723 | |
| Utilities | -43 | -220 | -942 | |
| Real Estate | -57 | -451 | -1,772 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +75.2 | +231 | |
| Interest Rates | +43.2 | -38 | |
| Geopolitics | +31.5 | +49 | |
| Inflation | +28.7 | -17 | |
| Labor Market | -9.5 | -11 | |
| Global Financial Crisis | -10.0 | -10 | |
| Market Crash | -15.7 | -18 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.0 | -25 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.36% (80% band -1.85% to +1.01%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency Intervention | 0.80 | 4.5h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.64 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.64 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.60 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 311 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,980 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.21× |
| Total in corpus | 143,553 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.