real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +2.03% ± 5.81% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.35 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (86.3% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0331%/day and dominates. Net +0.0305%/day. Suppressed: expected +2.03% over 30d is only 0.35 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +54.0 | Information Technology | 68.9 | 1.76 | 51% | Stocks to Watch: Palantir, SpaceX, HSBCprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +7.7 | Industrials | 47.9 | 0.86 | 63% | Prediction: Up 120% YTD, Bloom Energy Has Room to RunprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| W | +7.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 28.1 | — | 81% | Wayfair (W) Rallies 30% as Sales Growth Hits Post-Pandemic HighP/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| IONQ | +6.1 | Information Technology | -36.3 | — | 24% | IonQ Earnings Top Views. Investor Day Set For Sept. 8 Amid SkyWater Deal.convictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| ON | +6.0 | Information Technology | 17.0 | 0.27 | 36% | ON Semiconductor Shares Jump After Earnings and Outlook Beat ExpectationsconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPOT | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); Accelerating velocity +9.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | FOXA | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.59 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | W | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.2); Accelerating velocity +11.4 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 40.3% | -0.20 | -0.67 | -0.70 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 54.1); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | IONQ | LONG | 40.9% | -0.40 | -0.81 | -1.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.1); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | ON | LONG | 40.9% | -0.40 | -0.81 | -1.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 7 | RKLB | LONG | 40.4% | -0.38 | -0.85 | -1.51 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | WIX | LONG | 40.4% | -0.38 | -0.85 | -1.51 | Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 190 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.240%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | +11.4 | 4 | Wayfair (W) Rallies 30% as Sales Growth Hits Post-Pandemic High |
| SPOT | +9.2 | 2 | Spotify Just Reached 300 Million Paying Subscribers. No Audio Streaming Service Has Ever Done That. |
| RKLB | +7.0 | 3 | Up 58% in 12 Months, This Is Where Rocket Lab Will End The Year |
| WIX | +6.6 | 2 | Wix Q2 results show steady core business and improving Base44 economics |
| FOXA | +5.0 | 2 | Why is Fox Corp stock rallying today? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -6.8 | Datadog Earnings Top Views. Software Stock Plunges As Revenue Outlook Underwhelms. |
| ETSY | -5.9 | Etsy layoffs: CEO Kruti Patel Goyal cuts 12% of workforce, Q2 2026 |
| UBER | -5.4 | Is Waymo's Latest Announcement Bad News for Uber? |
| RIVN | -5.1 | Rivian's Improving Quarter Leaned On Help That Is Running Out |
| CPRI | -4.5 | Capri Holdings beats first-quarter forecasts but lowers revenue guidance |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +52 | +542 | +2,888 | |
| Information Technology | +44 | +390 | +568 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +9 | +23 | -636 | |
| Materials | -3 | +18 | -112 | |
| Energy | +81 | -27 | +2,792 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -20 | -29 | -1,444 | |
| Health Care | -9 | -34 | -268 | |
| Communication Services | -28 | -103 | -348 | |
| Consumer Staples | -34 | -113 | -720 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -223 | -942 | |
| Real Estate | -57 | -448 | -1,778 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +55.0 | -23 | |
| Oil Prices | +38.0 | +40 | |
| Inflation | +35.7 | -12 | |
| Geopolitics | +34.5 | +54 | |
| Tech Stocks | -10.8 | -9 | |
| Corporate Profits | -11.5 | +3 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.7 | -26 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -29.8 | +142 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.33% (80% band -1.57% to +0.94%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 14.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.77 | 3.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.61 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.59 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.58 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 879 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,698 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.28× |
| Total in corpus | 144,121 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.