real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.17% ± 5.70% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.38 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (73.0% posterior, +0.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0525%/day and dominates. Net +0.0503%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +48.0 | Information Technology | 67.4 | 1.76 | 48% | Stocks to Watch: Palantir, SpaceX, HSBCprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| CEG | +8.5 | Utilities | 19.8 | 3.39 | 19% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +6.8 | Industrials | 48.6 | 0.86 | 64% | Prediction: Up 120% YTD, Bloom Energy Has Room to RunprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| W | +6.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.6 | — | 78% | Wayfair (W) Rallies 30% as Sales Growth Hits Post-Pandemic HighP/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ALAB | +6.2 | Information Technology | 71.0 | — | 59% | Astera Labs vs. AppLovin: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FOXA | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.59 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | SPOT | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.59 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +9.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | ALAB | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.9); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 40.3% | -0.20 | -0.67 | -0.70 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 48.5); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | W | LONG | 42.9% | -0.25 | -0.62 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 7 | RKLB | LONG | 40.4% | -0.38 | -0.85 | -1.51 | Accelerating velocity +10.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | CEG | LONG | 42.8% | -0.25 | -0.60 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.6); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 190 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.240%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | +10.0 | 4 | SpaceX Climbs 3% as Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger a Selloff; AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Rise 5% |
| SPOT | +9.2 | 2 | Spotify Just Reached 300 Million Paying Subscribers. No Audio Streaming Service Has Ever Done That. |
| FOXA | +9.0 | 3 | Fox advertising, streaming service Tubi get boost from World Cup |
| CEG | +7.4 | 3 | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from Constellation |
| ALAB | +7.0 | 3 | Astera Labs vs. AppLovin: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -17.2 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| HUBS | -8.2 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| KVUE | -6.8 | Kenvue second quarter results fall short of expectations, sending shares lower |
| ETSY | -5.3 | Etsy layoffs: CEO Kruti Patel Goyal cuts 12% of workforce, Q2 2026 |
| UBER | -4.8 | Is Waymo's Latest Announcement Bad News for Uber? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +52 | +540 | +2,858 | |
| Information Technology | +36 | +340 | +615 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +9 | +32 | -647 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +5 | +24 | -107 | |
| Energy | +78 | +2 | +2,795 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -26 | -32 | -1,441 | |
| Health Care | -8 | -32 | -273 | |
| Communication Services | -23 | -100 | -357 | |
| Consumer Staples | -31 | -114 | -719 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -222 | -949 | |
| Real Estate | -59 | -438 | -1,776 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | +32.2 | +52 | |
| Inflation | +31.7 | -14 | |
| Interest Rates | +26.3 | -47 | |
| Diplomacy | +20.8 | +22 | |
| Agriculture | -9.8 | -12 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -13.7 | -20 | |
| Tech Stocks | -16.5 | -15 | |
| Tariffs | -16.7 | -21 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.33% (80% band -1.50% to +0.96%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 62% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.64% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 0.84 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 3.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.72 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.63 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.62 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.58 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,115 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,553 |
| Daily average | 1,349 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.23× |
| Total in corpus | 144,357 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.