real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.18% ± 5.71% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.38 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (71.4% posterior, +0.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0547%/day and dominates. Net +0.0525%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +46.7 | Information Technology | 67.6 | 1.76 | 49% | Is Palantir a Buy as Its Revenue Surges 93% and Continues to Accelerate?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| CEG | +7.6 | Utilities | 19.9 | 3.39 | 19% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| W | +7.3 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.3 | — | 76% | Wayfair narrows quarterly loss on strong US revenue growthP/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| BE | +6.1 | Industrials | 47.0 | 0.86 | 62% | Prediction: Up 120% YTD, Bloom Energy Has Room to RunprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| ALAB | +5.5 | Information Technology | 71.4 | — | 59% | Astera Labs vs. AppLovin: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitablePrice > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FOXA | LONG | 42.4% | -0.27 | -0.57 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | RKLB | LONG | 41.3% | -0.19 | -0.05 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +10.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | BE | LONG | 42.6% | -0.27 | -0.65 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 4 | COIN | LONG | 41.3% | -0.19 | -0.05 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 40.4% | -0.20 | -0.70 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 46.9); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | ALAB | LONG | 42.5% | -0.27 | -0.61 | -1.00 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | FSLR | LONG | 41.2% | -0.19 | +0.48 | +1.67 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | W | LONG | 42.6% | -0.27 | -0.65 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.4); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 190 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.240%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53The 'fire sale' of assets to cover leverage-driven losses is a systemic failure of the balance sheet and a fundamental breakdown of the AI infrastructure bet, not a strategic purge.
2026-08-04 12:51Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | +10.0 | 4 | SpaceX Climbs 3% as Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger a Selloff; AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Rise 5% |
| FOXA | +9.0 | 3 | Fox advertising, streaming service Tubi get boost from World Cup |
| CEG | +7.4 | 3 | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from Constellation |
| ALAB | +7.0 | 3 | Astera Labs vs. AppLovin: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| COIN | +5.6 | 2 | Coinbase launches 24/5 US stock trading for UK users, advancing 'Everything Exchange' strategy |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -15.3 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| CPRI | -8.6 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 15.19 USD |
| UBER | -8.5 | Uber doubles down on robotaxi plans, shares fall on weak profit forecast |
| HUBS | -7.3 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| KVUE | -6.1 | Kenvue second quarter results fall short of expectations, sending shares lower |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +46 | +544 | +2,845 | |
| Information Technology | +33 | +328 | +628 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +5 | +36 | -648 | |
| Energy | +81 | +28 | +2,812 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +6 | +20 | -112 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +3 | -26 | -265 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -39 | -48 | -1,450 | |
| Communication Services | -24 | -104 | -369 | |
| Consumer Staples | -31 | -112 | -716 | |
| Utilities | -24 | -224 | -950 | |
| Real Estate | -57 | -442 | -1,773 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | +36.2 | +57 | |
| Inflation | +33.2 | -11 | |
| Diplomacy | +20.8 | +22 | |
| Oil Prices | +20.5 | +32 | |
| Monetary Policy | -14.0 | -28 | |
| Tariffs | -16.2 | -21 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.8 | -27 | |
| Tech Stocks | -23.0 | -21 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.39% (80% band -1.41% to +1.01%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 62% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.64% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 0.87 | 2.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 3.3h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.65 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.59 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.57 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,325 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,570 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 144,567 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.