real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.20% ± 5.69% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.39 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0573%/day and dominates. Net +0.0552%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +55.6 | Information Technology | 67.8 | 1.87 | 49% | Palantir Stock Soars as Blowout Q2 Earnings Silence the BearsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| W | +7.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.2 | — | 75% | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep ClimbingP/B < 1.5UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABNB | +6.3 | Consumer Discretionary | 25.4 | 1.41 | 89% | S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updatesprofitable |
| CEG | +6.3 | Utilities | 19.6 | 3.38 | 18% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BABA | +5.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.0 | 0.51 | 35% | What New Tesla Vehicle Tests Mean for Alibaba StockprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BABA | LONG | 41.9% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | FOXA | LONG | 41.8% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | ABNB | LONG | 41.9% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.3); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 40.5% | -0.20 | -0.70 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 55.9); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | W | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.5); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | CEG | LONG | 41.9% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.3); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | SOFI | LONG | 41.0% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 8 | SUPN | LONG | 34.8% | +0.01 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
Engine hit rate 43.5% over 193 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.248%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | +7.4 | 3 | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from Constellation |
| ABNB | +7.0 | 2 | S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updates |
| SOFI | +6.6 | 2 | Why It’s Time to Buy the Dip In SoFi Stock |
| BABA | +5.4 | 2 | What New Tesla Vehicle Tests Mean for Alibaba Stock |
| FOXA | +4.2 | 2 | Fox advertising, streaming service Tubi get boost from World Cup |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -12.6 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| UBER | -9.9 | Uber shares slip as third-quarter earnings outlook disappoints investors |
| CPRI | -7.1 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 15.19 USD |
| HUBS | -6.0 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| TBLA | -5.6 | Taboola shares plunge after earnings miss and weaker revenue outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +39 | +533 | +2,874 | |
| Information Technology | +28 | +355 | +680 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +24 | +34 | -114 | |
| Energy | +59 | +30 | +2,800 | |
| Industrials | +1 | +15 | -656 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +10 | -21 | -264 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -49 | -51 | -1,472 | |
| Communication Services | -26 | -108 | -380 | |
| Consumer Staples | -22 | -112 | -722 | |
| Utilities | -9 | -219 | -954 | |
| Real Estate | -58 | -455 | -1,790 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +44.0 | +204 | |
| Inflation | +30.5 | -9 | |
| Oil Prices | +20.7 | +33 | |
| Interest Rates | +18.5 | -51 | |
| Semiconductors | -24.0 | +8 | |
| Tariffs | -24.3 | -28 | |
| Tech Stocks | -25.5 | -24 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -28.0 | -20 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.40% (80% band -1.37% to +0.98%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.85 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 3.3h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.79 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.61 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.54 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 46 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 2,484 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.31× |
| Total in corpus | 144,899 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.