real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.20% ± 5.69% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.39 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0573%/day and dominates. Net +0.0552%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +49.5 | Information Technology | 67.8 | 1.87 | 49% | Palantir Stock Soars as Blowout Q2 Earnings Silence the BearsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| W | +6.7 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.2 | — | 75% | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep ClimbingP/B < 1.5UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABNB | +5.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 25.2 | 1.41 | 89% | S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updatesprofitable |
| CEG | +5.6 | Utilities | 19.6 | 3.38 | 18% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BABA | +5.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.0 | 0.51 | 35% | What New Tesla Vehicle Tests Mean for Alibaba StockprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHWY | LONG | 41.8% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +1.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | BABA | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks) |
| 3 | ABNB | LONG | 41.9% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | W | LONG | 41.9% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.7); Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 50.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | CEG | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | SOFI | LONG | 41.0% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 8 | SUPN | LONG | 34.8% | +0.01 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
Engine hit rate 43.5% over 193 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.248%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +7.0 | 2 | S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updates |
| SOFI | +6.6 | 2 | Why It’s Time to Buy the Dip In SoFi Stock |
| W | +1.8 | 2 | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep Climbing |
| CHWY | +1.0 | 2 | 3 Reasons Chewy Stock Fits Peter Lynch's Blueprint for a 10-Bagger Stock |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| UBER | -11.9 | Uber shares retreat as weak outlook overshadows Q2 earnings and bookings beat |
| DDOG | -11.2 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| CPRI | -6.3 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 15.19 USD |
| HUBS | -5.4 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| TBLA | -5.0 | Taboola shares plunge after earnings miss and weaker revenue outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +47 | +532 | +2,881 | |
| Information Technology | +22 | +338 | +682 | |
| Energy | +80 | +44 | +2,818 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +21 | +36 | -112 | |
| Industrials | -8 | +16 | -666 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +10 | -20 | -263 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -52 | -49 | -1,480 | |
| Communication Services | -32 | -112 | -388 | |
| Consumer Staples | -19 | -113 | -725 | |
| Utilities | -12 | -223 | -958 | |
| Real Estate | -58 | -452 | -1,791 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +39.2 | +197 | |
| Oil Prices | +34.8 | +46 | |
| Inflation | +22.3 | -14 | |
| E-commerce | +19.7 | +25 | |
| Tariffs | -22.0 | -25 | |
| Tech Stocks | -28.5 | -27 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -29.3 | -38 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -32.0 | -24 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.42% (80% band -1.40% to +1.02%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.78 | 3.2h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.77 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.72 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.59 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.54 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 130 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,770 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.32× |
| Total in corpus | 144,983 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.