real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.20% ± 5.69% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.39 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0573%/day and dominates. Net +0.0552%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +39.1 | Information Technology | 67.8 | 2.29 | 49% | AI Trailblazers Nvidia, Palantir, Alphabet, and Meta Are Shaking Wall Street to Its Core With This $3.4 Billion WarningprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| COIN | +5.7 | Financials | 47.9 | — | 2% | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Urges Senate to Pass CLARITY Act, Says 'Whether People Love Crypto Or Hate It,' 70% of Americans Want Clear Rules: 'This Is About...'Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BR | +5.6 | Information Technology | 14.2 | 0.95 | 23% | Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) Opens Proxy Voting To Tokenized Equity HoldersprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| W | +4.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.2 | — | 75% | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep ClimbingP/B < 1.5UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| IREN | +4.5 | Financials | -40.4 | 3.11 | 35% | IREN Signed $2.8 Billion in New AI Contracts. The Whole Company Is Worth About $15 Billion.profitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | UBER | LONG | 41.8% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (6 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | HOOD | LONG | 41.8% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | APO | LONG | 41.1% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 5 | CC | LONG | 41.1% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 6 | FOUR | LONG | 41.1% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 7 | W | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 42.0% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 39.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.2% over 199 scored calls (lower bound 36.5%), average net alpha -0.270%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | +5.6 | 6 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 5: Uber Falls 5% on Weak Guidance Despite Strong Bookings Growth |
| COIN | +4.8 | 2 | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Urges Senate to Pass CLARITY Act, Says 'Whether People Love Crypto Or Hate It,' 70% of Americans Want Clear Rules: 'This Is About...' |
| HOOD | +4.2 | 2 | Why Hedge Funds Prefer Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Over SoFi |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| Z | -8.9 | Zillow Swings to Loss on Restructuring Costs |
| DDOG | -8.3 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| GXO | -8.2 | GXO Vows to Close Margin Gap With Rivals After Earnings Selloff |
| ETSY | -6.3 | Etsy to Cut 12% of Workforce as CEO Focuses on Core Marketplace |
| APP | -5.4 | AppLovin Says Second-Quarter Results Fell Short of Its Standards |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +24 | +506 | +2,829 | |
| Information Technology | +38 | +339 | +677 | |
| Energy | +126 | +73 | +2,710 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +34 | +43 | -80 | |
| Industrials | -32 | +3 | -651 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +11 | -10 | -237 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -53 | -55 | -1,413 | |
| Communication Services | -27 | -106 | -376 | |
| Consumer Staples | -17 | -118 | -705 | |
| Utilities | -35 | -221 | -958 | |
| Real Estate | -73 | -451 | -1,796 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +79.3 | +88 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +60.0 | +216 | |
| E-commerce | +29.2 | +35 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +14.2 | +4 | |
| Geopolitics | -23.5 | +5 | |
| Tech Stocks | -24.5 | -24 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -35.7 | -43 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -42.0 | -33 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.51% (80% band -1.45% to +1.26%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.76 | 3.1h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.76 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.72 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.67 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.49 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 677 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,686 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.26× |
| Total in corpus | 145,530 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.