real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.43% ± 5.53% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.44 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (50.9% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0871%/day and dominates. Net +0.0856%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +42.5 | Information Technology | 72.3 | 2.29 | 59% | Palantir CEO drops 11-word bombshell for stock market investorsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| W | +6.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 28.6 | — | 84% | Wayfair found growth where the housing market is weakestP/B < 1.5UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABNB | +5.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.41 | 100% | Airbnb vs. e.l.f. Beauty: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| COIN | +5.2 | Financials | 49.6 | — | 4% | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Urges Senate to Pass CLARITY Act, Says 'Whether People Love Crypto Or Hate It,' 70% of Americans Want Clear Rules: 'This Is About...'Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BR | +5.2 | Information Technology | 14.2 | 0.95 | 23% | Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) Opens Proxy Voting To Tokenized Equity HoldersprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUPN | LONG | 38.4% | +0.01 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | APO | LONG | 45.9% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | CC | LONG | 45.9% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 4 | FOUR | LONG | 45.9% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | BR | LONG | 42.2% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | UBER | LONG | 41.7% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (6 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | ELF | LONG | 41.7% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 42.2% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.29 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 42.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 200 scored calls (lower bound 36.3%), average net alpha -0.288%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | +5.6 | 6 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 5: Uber Falls 5% on Weak Guidance Despite Strong Bookings Growth |
| COIN | +5.4 | 2 | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Urges Senate to Pass CLARITY Act, Says 'Whether People Love Crypto Or Hate It,' 70% of Americans Want Clear Rules: 'This Is About...' |
| ELF | +4.2 | 2 | Airbnb vs. e.l.f. Beauty: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| Z | -8.2 | Zillow Swings to Loss on Restructuring Costs |
| GXO | -7.6 | GXO Vows to Close Margin Gap With Rivals After Earnings Selloff |
| DDOG | -7.6 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| ETSY | -5.8 | Etsy to Cut 12% of Workforce as CEO Focuses on Core Marketplace |
| APP | -5.0 | AppLovin Says Second-Quarter Results Fell Short of Its Standards |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +12 | +519 | +2,840 | |
| Information Technology | +34 | +325 | +685 | |
| Energy | +112 | +72 | +2,632 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +36 | +39 | -69 | |
| Industrials | -34 | -6 | -660 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +18 | -14 | -243 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -60 | -70 | -1,390 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | -104 | -377 | |
| Consumer Staples | -16 | -124 | -706 | |
| Utilities | -30 | -218 | -946 | |
| Real Estate | -50 | -422 | -1,770 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +61.5 | +72 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +40.0 | +198 | |
| E-commerce | +28.8 | +35 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +14.2 | +4 | |
| Employment | -24.2 | -25 | |
| Geopolitics | -28.2 | +1 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -31.2 | -40 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -45.7 | -36 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.47% (80% band -1.28% to +1.35%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.75 | 3.1h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.51 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 789 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,500 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.18× |
| Total in corpus | 145,642 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.