real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.40% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (53.0% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0814%/day and dominates. Net +0.0800%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +37.3 | Information Technology | 74.1 | 2.29 | 63% | PLTU’s 63.76% Weekly Surge Masks a Brutal Truth: Leveraged Palantir Holders Lost One-Third of Their Money in 12 MonthsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +9.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 28.9 | 1.41 | 98% | Airbnb Stock Rallies On Earnings Beat. AI Paying Off, Says CEO.profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| HWM | +6.3 | Industrials | 46.6 | 0.80 | 92% | Howmet Stock Pops After Earnings But Remains Inside Buy ZoneprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
| NET | +5.9 | Information Technology | 193.9 | — | 90% | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High BarEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
| W | +5.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.9 | — | 79% | Wayfair found growth where the housing market is weakestP/B < 1.5UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | UBER | LONG | 42.0% | -0.26 | -0.55 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +7.2 (7 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | SPCX | LONG | 42.0% | -0.26 | -0.55 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | SUPN | LONG | 38.0% | +0.04 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 5 | AAOI | LONG | 41.2% | -0.22 | -0.57 | -1.09 | Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 41.0% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.24 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 37.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | W | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 200 scored calls (lower bound 36.3%), average net alpha -0.288%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NET | +9.2 | 3 | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High Bar |
| UBER | +7.2 | 7 | $UBER 36K NUKE #HIM! |
| SPCX | +7.0 | 2 | SpaceX Stock Lands An Upgrade, Rocket Lab Surges After Electron Mission |
| ABNB | +4.6 | 2 | Airbnb Stock Rallies On Earnings Beat. AI Paying Off, Says CEO. |
| AAOI | +4.4 | 2 | Applied Optoelectronics Announces Equity Inducement Awards for New Employees |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WEN | -8.3 | Wendy’s Slashes Dividend and Scraps Guidance as Activist Peltz Applies the Pressure |
| Z | -7.6 | Zillow Swings to Loss on Restructuring Costs |
| DDOG | -7.1 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| GXO | -7.0 | GXO Vows to Close Margin Gap With Rivals After Earnings Selloff |
| UBER | -6.2 | $UBER 36K NUKE #HIM! |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +8 | +510 | +2,857 | |
| Information Technology | +65 | +333 | +692 | |
| Energy | +102 | +55 | +2,573 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +29 | +38 | -69 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +16 | -15 | -241 | |
| Industrials | -51 | -18 | -659 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -80 | -80 | -1,376 | |
| Communication Services | -19 | -100 | -377 | |
| Consumer Staples | -23 | -132 | -715 | |
| Utilities | -16 | -199 | -929 | |
| Real Estate | -32 | -394 | -1,759 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +65.7 | +75 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +50.3 | +207 | |
| Interest Rates | +25.0 | -30 | |
| E-commerce | +24.5 | +31 | |
| Geopolitics | -22.3 | +6 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -27.7 | -37 | |
| Employment | -35.2 | -36 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -48.3 | -39 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.52% (80% band -1.34% to +1.44%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 58% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.76 | 3.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.73 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.69 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.63 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.56 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.45 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 964 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,465 |
| Daily average | 1,350 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.16× |
| Total in corpus | 145,817 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.