real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.54% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.44 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (50.4% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0851%/day and dominates. Net +0.0837%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +36.7 | Information Technology | 74.4 | 2.29 | 64% | Stock Market Rally Powers Ahead; SpaceX, Palantir, Sandisk Are Key Earnings Movers: Weekly ReviewprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +13.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 28.9 | 1.41 | 97% | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15%profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| TWLO | +8.1 | Information Technology | 37.7 | 0.36 | 98% | Twilio Stock Surges 31% On Earnings Beat As AI Tools Gain TractionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| HWM | +5.8 | Industrials | 46.5 | 0.80 | 91% | Howmet Stock Pops After Earnings But Remains Inside Buy ZoneprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
| NET | +5.5 | Information Technology | 190.5 | — | 86% | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High BarEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUPN | LONG | 40.9% | +0.12 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | SPCX | LONG | 42.0% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +10.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | UBER | LONG | 42.0% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +6.0 (6 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | NBIS | LONG | 41.0% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.24 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 42.2% | -0.26 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 37.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | WEN | LONG | 41.0% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.24 | Despair reversion: sentiment -8 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | ABNB | LONG | 42.1% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.7); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | HWM | LONG | 42.2% | -0.26 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); ⚠ Near 52w High; Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 200 scored calls (lower bound 36.3%), average net alpha -0.288%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | +10.0 | 3 | Stock Market Rally Powers Ahead; SpaceX, Palantir, Sandisk Are Key Earnings Movers: Weekly Review |
| ABNB | +9.6 | 3 | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15% |
| NET | +9.2 | 3 | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High Bar |
| TWLO | +8.0 | 2 | Twilio Stock Surges 31% On Earnings Beat As AI Tools Gain Traction |
| UBER | +6.0 | 6 | $UBER 36K NUKE #HIM! |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WEN | -7.7 | Wendy’s Slashes Dividend and Scraps Guidance as Activist Peltz Applies the Pressure |
| Z | -7.1 | Zillow Swings to Loss on Restructuring Costs |
| DDOG | -6.6 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| GXO | -6.5 | GXO Vows to Close Margin Gap With Rivals After Earnings Selloff |
| UBER | -5.7 | $UBER 36K NUKE #HIM! |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +4 | +506 | +2,853 | |
| Information Technology | +68 | +334 | +701 | |
| Energy | +82 | +38 | +2,527 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +28 | +38 | -71 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +12 | -17 | -244 | |
| Industrials | -60 | -24 | -667 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -86 | -100 | -1,379 | |
| Communication Services | -20 | -101 | -374 | |
| Consumer Staples | -28 | -137 | -709 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +6 | -178 | -905 | |
| Real Estate | -4 | -361 | -1,728 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +70.3 | +80 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +53.2 | +211 | |
| Interest Rates | +47.8 | -6 | |
| E-commerce | +25.0 | +32 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -20.7 | -31 | |
| Geopolitics | -25.2 | +4 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -43.3 | -35 | |
| Employment | -58.2 | -59 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.57% (80% band -1.45% to +1.55%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 58% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.77 | 3.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.70 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.65 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.44 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,097 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,443 |
| Daily average | 1,351 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.15× |
| Total in corpus | 145,950 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.