real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.41% ± 5.57% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (53.2% posterior, -0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0822%/day and dominates. Net +0.0803%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +46.3 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir CEO Alex Karp Drops an 11-Word Bombshell That Proves Artificial Intelligence (AI) Is Supercharging Software StocksprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +12.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.5 | 1.41 | 99% | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15%profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| TWLO | +7.5 | Information Technology | 35.9 | 0.36 | 93% | Twilio Stock Surges 31% On Earnings Beat As AI Tools Gain TractionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| HWM | +5.4 | Industrials | 46.1 | 0.80 | 89% | Howmet Stock Pops After Earnings But Remains Inside Buy ZoneprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| NET | +5.1 | Information Technology | 181.3 | — | 85% | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High BarEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUPN | LONG | 42.2% | +0.13 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | SPCX | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | OKLO | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -0.73 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | HWM | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | WEN | LONG | 40.8% | -0.10 | -0.42 | -1.24 | Despair reversion: sentiment -11 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | ABNB | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.58 | -1.01 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.6); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.63 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 46.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | TWLO | LONG | 41.6% | -0.24 | -0.58 | -1.17 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.6); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 200 scored calls (lower bound 36.3%), average net alpha -0.288%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +9.6 | 3 | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15% |
| NET | +9.2 | 3 | Cloudflare (NET) Jumps on AI Demand as CrowdStrike (CRWD) Sets a High Bar |
| TWLO | +8.0 | 2 | Twilio Stock Surges 31% On Earnings Beat As AI Tools Gain Traction |
| SPCX | +6.4 | 2 | Stock Market Rally Powers Ahead; SpaceX, Palantir, Sandisk Are Key Earnings Movers: Weekly Review |
| OKLO | +5.0 | 3 | Oklo Is Still Down 33% This Year. What Will It Take to Get OKLO Stock Back to $100? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WEN | -9.9 | Burger King overtakes Wendy's as the nation's second-largest burger chain |
| CPRI | -6.6 | Capri reports lower first-quarter sales, updates outlook |
| Z | -6.5 | Zillow Swings to Loss on Restructuring Costs |
| DDOG | -6.1 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| GXO | -6.0 | GXO Vows to Close Margin Gap With Rivals After Earnings Selloff |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financialsbearish reversal | -9 | +484 | +2,863 | |
| Information Technology | +71 | +329 | +719 | |
| Energy | +79 | +43 | +2,485 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +32 | +43 | -64 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +6 | -23 | -248 | |
| Industrials | -55 | -26 | -661 | |
| Communication Services | -20 | -100 | -375 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -87 | -104 | -1,386 | |
| Consumer Staples | -33 | -146 | -716 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +8 | -165 | -902 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +10 | -332 | -1,719 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +61.8 | +73 | |
| Interest Rates | +60.5 | +11 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +45.3 | +207 | |
| E-commerce | +22.3 | +30 | |
| Inflation | -23.7 | -46 | |
| Geopolitics | -34.0 | -4 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -37.8 | -31 | |
| Employment | -72.2 | -73 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.63% (80% band -1.58% to +1.63%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.79 | 3.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.76 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.70 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.62 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.41 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,243 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,479 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.14× |
| Total in corpus | 146,096 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.