real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (52.8% posterior, -0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0829%/day and dominates. Net +0.0809%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +43.0 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir CEO Alex Karp Drops an 11-Word Bombshell That Proves Artificial Intelligence (AI) Is Supercharging Software StocksprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +11.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.2 | 1.41 | 99% | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15%profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| TWLO | +9.8 | Information Technology | 35.7 | 0.36 | 92% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| QSR | +9.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.7 | 1.00 | 61% | Burger King’s Turnaround Gains Steam, Powering Restaurant Brands’ Profitprofitable |
| NET | +5.2 | Information Technology | 181.3 | — | 85% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUPN | LONG | 42.2% | +0.13 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | TEAM | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | QSR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.0); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | WEN | LONG | 40.8% | -0.12 | -0.43 | -1.17 | Despair reversion: sentiment -11 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 43.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | ABNB | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.7); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | TWLO | LONG | 41.7% | -0.24 | -0.60 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.8); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 8 | W | LONG | 0.0% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 200 scored calls (lower bound 36.3%), average net alpha -0.288%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | +11.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| NET | +10.2 | 4 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| ABNB | +9.6 | 3 | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15% |
| TEAM | +9.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| QSR | +8.8 | 3 | Burger King’s Turnaround Gains Steam, Powering Restaurant Brands’ Profit |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| Z | -10.4 | Why Zillow Stock Sells Off After Surprise Quarterly Loss |
| WEN | -9.2 | Burger King overtakes Wendy's as the nation's second-largest burger chain |
| APP | -7.8 | AppLovin shares tumble as revenue miss and cautious outlook outweigh earnings beat |
| ETSY | -7.4 | Etsy to axe 12% of workforce under restructuring drive |
| CPRI | -6.1 | Capri reports lower first-quarter sales, updates outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financialsbearish reversal | -23 | +484 | +2,880 | |
| Information Technology | +59 | +315 | +721 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +28 | +41 | -68 | |
| Energy | +68 | +39 | +2,453 | |
| Industrials | -46 | -28 | -663 | |
| Health Care | -0 | -32 | -257 | |
| Communication Services | -20 | -94 | -378 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -64 | -98 | -1,364 | |
| Consumer Staples | -32 | -144 | -714 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +9 | -158 | -898 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +23 | -321 | -1,712 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +68.8 | +20 | |
| Oil Prices | +43.0 | +56 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +30.5 | +193 | |
| Gold Prices | +20.3 | +22 | |
| Inflation | -22.8 | -44 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -27.3 | -22 | |
| Geopolitics | -31.0 | -1 | |
| Employment | -76.2 | -78 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.60% (80% band -1.58% to +1.55%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.78 | 3.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.70 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.43 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,410 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,611 |
| Projected close of day | 1,503 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.11× |
| Total in corpus | 146,263 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.