real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (52.8% posterior, -0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0828%/day and dominates. Net +0.0809%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +39.7 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir CEO Alex Karp Drops an 11-Word Bombshell That Proves Artificial Intelligence (AI) Is Supercharging Software StocksprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| QSR | +11.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.7 | 1.00 | 61% | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growthprofitable |
| ABNB | +10.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.2 | 1.41 | 99% | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15%profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| TWLO | +9.1 | Information Technology | 35.7 | 0.36 | 92% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| NET | +4.8 | Information Technology | 181.3 | — | 85% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUPN | LONG | 42.2% | +0.13 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | TEAM | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | QSR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.5); Accelerating velocity +11.8 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | ABNB | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.8); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 39.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | TWLO | LONG | 41.7% | -0.24 | -0.60 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.1); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 7 | W | LONG | 0.0% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection |
| 8 | NET | LONG | 41.7% | -0.24 | -0.60 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.8); Accelerating velocity +10.2 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.8% over 201 scored calls (lower bound 36.1%), average net alpha -0.299%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| QSR | +11.8 | 4 | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growth |
| TWLO | +11.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| NET | +10.2 | 4 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| ABNB | +9.6 | 3 | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15% |
| TEAM | +9.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| Z | -9.6 | Why Zillow Stock Sells Off After Surprise Quarterly Loss |
| WEN | -8.5 | Burger King overtakes Wendy's as the nation's second-largest burger chain |
| APP | -7.2 | AppLovin shares tumble as revenue miss and cautious outlook outweigh earnings beat |
| ETSY | -6.9 | Etsy to axe 12% of workforce under restructuring drive |
| CPRI | -5.7 | Capri reports lower first-quarter sales, updates outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financialsbearish reversal | -18 | +497 | +2,880 | |
| Information Technology | +52 | +300 | +741 | |
| Energy | +76 | +40 | +2,427 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +23 | +38 | -77 | |
| Health Care | -0 | -28 | -255 | |
| Industrials | -49 | -30 | -659 | |
| Communication Services | -13 | -92 | -376 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -71 | -111 | -1,356 | |
| Consumer Staples | -31 | -147 | -717 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +10 | -159 | -897 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +23 | -308 | -1,707 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +74.2 | +28 | |
| Oil Prices | +54.3 | +66 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +30.7 | +192 | |
| Monetary Policy | +17.8 | +4 | |
| Inflation | -23.5 | -44 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -27.3 | -22 | |
| Geopolitics | -30.5 | -1 | |
| Employment | -79.2 | -81 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.61% (80% band -1.70% to +1.73%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.77 | 2.9h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.77 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.68 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.67 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.41 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 0 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,487 |
| Projected close of day | 0 |
| Daily average | 1,343 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 146,340 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.