real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (52.8% posterior, -0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0829%/day and dominates. Net +0.0809%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +33.6 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir's Risk-Reward Ratio Is Not Attractive. Here's Why.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| QSR | +10.7 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.7 | 1.00 | 61% | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growthprofitable |
| ABNB | +9.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.2 | 1.41 | 99% | Chesky says Airbnb will spend ‘a lot more’ on AI as earnings beat and stock surges 15%profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| TWLO | +8.4 | Information Technology | 35.6 | 0.36 | 92% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| HWM | +4.3 | Industrials | 46.1 | 0.80 | 80% | Howmet Stock Pops After Earnings But Remains Inside Buy ZoneprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEAM | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | QSR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.8); Accelerating velocity +11.8 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | UBER | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.2 (5 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | SPCX | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +8.4 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | HWM | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | ABNB | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.0); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 33.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | TWLO | LONG | 41.7% | -0.24 | -0.60 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.5); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
Engine hit rate 42.2% over 204 scored calls (lower bound 35.6%), average net alpha -0.333%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| QSR | +11.8 | 4 | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growth |
| TWLO | +11.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| UBER | +9.2 | 5 | Rivian's R2 Is Shipping and Uber Wants 50,000 of Them |
| TEAM | +9.0 | 3 | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildly |
| SPCX | +8.4 | 3 | How To Trade New IPOs Like SpaceX Without 'Breaking A Leg': The Secret Is In This Metric |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -13.5 | Datadog Stock Has Worst Day in More Than 6 Years as Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Reaction Is ‘Extreme.’ |
| APP | -11.9 | AppLovin Stock Plummets to Lowest Level in Over a Year on Weaker-Than-Expected Revenue, Outlook |
| ETSY | -9.6 | ETSY Stock Layoffs: What to Know About the Latest Etsy Job Cuts |
| Z | -8.9 | Why Zillow Stock Sells Off After Surprise Quarterly Loss |
| WEN | -7.9 | Burger King overtakes Wendy's as the nation's second-largest burger chain |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +4 | +509 | +2,897 | |
| Information Technology | +60 | +301 | +752 | |
| Energy | +57 | +33 | +2,416 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +12 | +32 | -82 | |
| Health Care | -4 | -26 | -256 | |
| Industrials | -45 | -32 | -666 | |
| Communication Services | -17 | -91 | -383 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -71 | -113 | -1,357 | |
| Consumer Staples | -35 | -152 | -720 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +10 | -163 | -896 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +28 | -301 | -1,705 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +91.5 | +44 | |
| Oil Prices | +51.0 | +63 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +37.8 | +199 | |
| Monetary Policy | +17.8 | +4 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -24.8 | -20 | |
| Inflation | -25.0 | -45 | |
| Geopolitics | -25.8 | +3 | |
| Employment | -81.2 | -83 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.61% (80% band -1.70% to +1.73%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.80 | 2.8h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.76 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.69 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.66 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.63 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.46 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 86 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,487 |
| Projected close of day | 609 |
| Daily average | 1,343 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.22× |
| Total in corpus | 146,426 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.