real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (52.8% posterior, -0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0829%/day and dominates. Net +0.0809%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +25.5 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir CEO drops 11-word bombshell for stock market investorsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +13.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.2 | 1.41 | 99% | Airbnb Boosts Full-Year Forecast on Strong Demand as AI Bets Pay OffprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| BABA | +8.3 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.2 | 0.52 | 36% | Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max Launch: What BABA vs. BIDU Means for InvestorsprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| QSR | +7.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.7 | 1.00 | 61% | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growthprofitable |
| TWLO | +6.2 | Information Technology | 35.6 | 0.36 | 92% | ‘SaaSpocalypse’ debate intensifies as software stocks swing wildlyprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DKNG | LONG | 42.9% | +0.21 | +0.31 | -0.85 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | LYFT | LONG | 42.6% | +0.05 | -0.01 | -0.76 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | ASTS | LONG | 42.9% | +0.21 | +0.31 | -0.85 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | OKLO | LONG | 42.9% | +0.21 | +0.31 | -0.85 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | SOUN | LONG | 42.4% | -0.03 | -0.16 | -0.72 | Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | BABA | LONG | 42.4% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.4); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | QSR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.9) |
| 8 | RIVN | LONG | 42.3% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +7.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 207 scored calls (lower bound 36.4%), average net alpha -0.293%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOUN | +9.6 | 3 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 6: SoundHound AI Surges 10% on Record Q2 Revenue and Raised 2026 Guidance |
| RIVN | +7.8 | 2 | Prediction: This Crucial Rivian Metric Will Turn Positive |
| BABA | +6.8 | 2 | Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max Launch: What BABA vs. BIDU Means for Investors |
| JOBY | +6.2 | 2 | Why Joby Aviation Stock Flew Higher Today |
| LYFT | +6.0 | 2 | Lyft Shares Rise as It Notches Ridership Growth |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -18.7 | Datadog Beat on Revenue, Beat on Earnings, and Raised Its Outlook. The Stock Fell 19%. |
| APP | -8.8 | AppLovin Stock Plummets to Lowest Level in Over a Year on Weaker-Than-Expected Revenue, Outlook |
| ETSY | -7.1 | ETSY Stock Layoffs: What to Know About the Latest Etsy Job Cuts |
| Z | -6.6 | Why Zillow Stock Sells Off After Surprise Quarterly Loss |
| WEN | -5.8 | Burger King overtakes Wendy's as the nation's second-largest burger chain |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +5 | +491 | +2,880 | |
| Information Technology | +68 | +314 | +762 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +6 | +38 | -72 | |
| Energy | +15 | +27 | +2,354 | |
| Industrials | -30 | -16 | -650 | |
| Health Care | -24 | -33 | -262 | |
| Communication Services | -15 | -94 | -382 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -68 | -114 | -1,334 | |
| Consumer Staples | -40 | -154 | -718 | |
| Utilitiesbullish reversal | +28 | -167 | -884 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +57 | -294 | -1,694 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +133.8 | +81 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +45.8 | +208 | |
| Monetary Policy | +23.3 | +8 | |
| Oil Prices | +18.3 | +35 | |
| Stock Market | -11.3 | -1 | |
| Equity Markets | -11.3 | -6 | |
| Geopolitics | -28.0 | +1 | |
| Employment | -92.2 | -94 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.63% (80% band -1.75% to +1.78%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.85 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 2.7h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.77 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| FinTech | 0.75 | 12.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.68 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.62 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.59 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 502 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,487 |
| Projected close of day | 1,044 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.22× |
| Total in corpus | 146,842 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.