real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.42% ± 5.56% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (52.8% posterior, -0.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0829%/day and dominates. Net +0.0809%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +18.3 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.41 | 99% | Airbnb vs. MercadoLibre: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| PLTR | +18.0 | Information Technology | 74.8 | 2.29 | 65% | Palantir CEO drops 11-word bombshell for stock market investorsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NET | +7.7 | Information Technology | 181.3 | — | 85% | Dow Jones Futures Rise As Cloudflare Leads Big Software Winners; Jobs Report On TapEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
| BABA | +5.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.2 | 0.52 | 36% | Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max Launch: What BABA vs. BIDU Means for InvestorsprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| QSR | +5.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.7 | 1.00 | 61% | Restaurant Brands International earnings beat driven by strong Burger King sales growthprofitable |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 57.4% | +0.12 | -0.25 | -1.36 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | LYFT | LONG | 56.3% | +0.12 | -0.25 | -1.36 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | PRU | LONG | 59.1% | +0.12 | -0.25 | -1.36 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | OKLO | LONG | 59.1% | +0.12 | -0.25 | -1.36 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | RL | LONG | 52.0% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | LYV | LONG | 48.6% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +3.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | BABA | LONG | 41.2% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks) |
| 8 | DOCS | LONG | 41.5% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 210 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.273%. Serving: challenger.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NET | +7.6 | 3 | Dow Jones Futures Rise As Cloudflare Leads Big Software Winners; Jobs Report On Tap |
| ABNB | +5.0 | 3 | Airbnb vs. MercadoLibre: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| RL | +5.0 | 2 | Ralph Lauren beats Q1 targets on strong sales in Asia and North America |
| DOCS | +4.0 | 3 | Why Doximity Stock Skyrocketed on Friday |
| LYV | +3.0 | 2 | Live Nation Drew 49 Million Fans Last Quarter. Its General Counsel's Stock Just Vested |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -13.2 | Datadog Beat on Revenue, Beat on Earnings, and Raised Its Outlook. The Stock Fell 19%. |
| WEN | -6.2 | Why is Wendy’s stock sliding today? |
| APP | -6.2 | AppLovin Stock Plummets to Lowest Level in Over a Year on Weaker-Than-Expected Revenue, Outlook |
| NBIS | -5.4 | Nebius Stock Plunged 31% Last Month. Is It Time to Buy? |
| ETSY | -5.0 | ETSY Stock Layoffs: What to Know About the Latest Etsy Job Cuts |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +31 | +478 | +2,883 | |
| Information Technology | +46 | +316 | +698 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +3 | +42 | -64 | |
| Energybreakout | +24 | +29 | +2,280 | |
| Industrials | -8 | -28 | -635 | |
| Health Care | -30 | -41 | -267 | |
| Communication Services | -13 | -84 | -372 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -33 | -126 | -1,310 | |
| Utilities | -4 | -154 | -871 | |
| Consumer Staples | -30 | -160 | -720 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +11 | -272 | -1,622 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +87.7 | +49 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +27.3 | +192 | |
| Inflation | +14.3 | -10 | |
| Gold Prices | +14.0 | +19 | |
| M&A | -12.0 | +13 | |
| Leverage Risk | -16.0 | -16 | |
| Geopolitics | -30.3 | -1 | |
| Employment | -31.5 | -43 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.65% (80% band -1.87% to +1.83%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.85 | 2.3h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.83 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.70 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.69 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.66 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.55 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.51 | 15.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 937 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,487 |
| Projected close of day | 1,088 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.25× |
| Total in corpus | 147,277 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.