real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.41% ± 5.58% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (56.6% posterior, +1.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0762%/day and dominates. Net +0.0770%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +13.2 | Information Technology | 74.5 | 2.37 | 65% | Palantir Surges 10%, UiPath Rises 7%, C3.ai Gains 5% as Agentic AI Stocks Rally TogetherprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +11.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.65 | 99% | Airbnb Stock Hit 4-Year High After Earnings. What to Know.profitableNear 52w High |
| TEAM | +5.9 | Information Technology | 22.1 | — | 73% | Stock Market Today, Aug. 7: Markets Rally on Jobs Shock and Atlassian Surges 35%UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| NET | +5.3 | Information Technology | 180.0 | — | 85% | More Than Half of Cloudflare's Network Traffic Is No Longer Human. The Stock Broke to a Record on It.EV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| DOCS | +4.8 | Health Care | 17.5 | 0.59 | 17% | Why Doximity Stock Is Soaring 38% After an Earnings MissPEGY < 0.75UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QS | LONG | 40.9% | +0.05 | -0.36 | -1.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 2 | DKNG | LONG | 42.7% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | ABNB | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.8); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 4 | TEAM | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | DOCS | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.8); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | NET | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.4% over 219 scored calls (lower bound 37.0%), average net alpha -0.266%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| DKNG | +9.0 | 2 | DraftKings (DKNG) shareholders reward predictions growth |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -6.3 | Datadog Beat on Revenue, Beat on Earnings, and Raised Its Outlook. The Stock Fell 19%. |
| WEN | -5.7 | 5 things wrong with Wendy’s right now, including 1 big one that’s threatening its entire turnaround effort |
| APP | -4.9 | Analysts Are Slashing Price Targets on AppLovin Stock. Here's Why. |
| PRU | -4.5 | Prudential Financial stock hits 52-week low at 21.11 USD |
| BROS | -3.9 | Why Dutch Bros Stock Is Plummeting Lower This Week |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +64 | +422 | +2,838 | |
| Information Technology | +36 | +348 | +664 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +4 | +45 | -52 | |
| Energy | +10 | +9 | +2,254 | |
| Industrials | -28 | -32 | -627 | |
| Health Care | -10 | -41 | -263 | |
| Communication Services | -10 | -81 | -376 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -26 | -141 | -1,309 | |
| Utilities | -24 | -141 | -854 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -169 | -706 | |
| Real Estatebullish reversal | +8 | -221 | -1,569 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +73.0 | +50 | |
| Market Volatility | +12.5 | -5 | |
| Employment Data | +8.7 | +9 | |
| Autonomous Driving | +7.3 | +9 | |
| M&A | -16.5 | +10 | |
| Geopolitics | -23.8 | +6 | |
| Cloud Computing | -24.7 | +9 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -58.8 | +126 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.64% (80% band -2.00% to +1.72%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.54 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.51 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.49 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 665 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,112 |
| Projected close of day | 990 |
| Daily average | 1,346 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.87× |
| Total in corpus | 148,117 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.