real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.41% ± 5.58% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (56.6% posterior, +1.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0762%/day and dominates. Net +0.0770%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +14.8 | Information Technology | 74.5 | 2.37 | 65% | Palantir vs. Salesforce: Two Visions of Enterprise AI, One Clear WinnerprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +10.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.65 | 99% | Airbnb Stock Hit 4-Year High After Earnings. What to Know.profitableNear 52w High |
| UBER | +6.1 | Information Technology | 17.1 | 8.32 | 26% | TechCrunch Mobility: Zoox prepares for launch and Uber’s AV empireprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| TEAM | +5.2 | Information Technology | 22.1 | — | 73% | Stock Market Today, Aug. 7: Markets Rally on Jobs Shock and Atlassian Surges 35%UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| NET | +4.7 | Information Technology | 180.0 | — | 85% | More Than Half of Cloudflare's Network Traffic Is No Longer Human. The Stock Broke to a Record on It.EV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DKNG | LONG | 42.7% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | ABNB | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.6); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 3 | TEAM | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | UBER | LONG | 42.8% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.1); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | NET | LONG | 43.0% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.6% over 220 scored calls (lower bound 37.2%), average net alpha -0.260%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| DKNG | +9.0 | 2 | DraftKings (DKNG) shareholders reward predictions growth |
| UBER | +6.0 | 2 | TechCrunch Mobility: Zoox prepares for launch and Uber’s AV empire |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -5.7 | Datadog Beat on Revenue, Beat on Earnings, and Raised Its Outlook. The Stock Fell 19%. |
| WEN | -5.1 | 5 things wrong with Wendy’s right now, including 1 big one that’s threatening its entire turnaround effort |
| APP | -4.4 | Analysts Are Slashing Price Targets on AppLovin Stock. Here's Why. |
| PRU | -4.0 | Prudential Financial stock hits 52-week low at 21.11 USD |
| BROS | -3.5 | Why Dutch Bros Stock Is Plummeting Lower This Week |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +61 | +404 | +2,809 | |
| Information Technology | +37 | +353 | +642 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +4 | +48 | -48 | |
| Energybreakout | +5 | +6 | +2,248 | |
| Industrials | -18 | -23 | -624 | |
| Health Care | -8 | -37 | -259 | |
| Communication Services | -10 | -84 | -382 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -22 | -137 | -1,297 | |
| Utilities | -28 | -139 | -841 | |
| Consumer Staples | -15 | -169 | -702 | |
| Real Estate | -5 | -219 | -1,550 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +58.2 | +37 | |
| Market Volatility | +12.5 | -4 | |
| Valuation | +11.7 | +11 | |
| Financialization | +9.0 | +9 | |
| Semiconductors | -20.0 | +5 | |
| Geopolitics | -26.0 | +3 | |
| Cloud Computing | -26.3 | +7 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -54.2 | +129 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.61% (80% band -1.96% to +1.66%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.53 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.51 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.50 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 766 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,112 |
| Projected close of day | 959 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.92× |
| Total in corpus | 148,218 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.