real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.39% ± 5.59% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (56.1% posterior, +0.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0771%/day and dominates. Net +0.0762%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +10.1 | Information Technology | 74.5 | 2.37 | 65% | Palantir vs. Salesforce: Two Visions of Enterprise AI, One Clear WinnerprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +10.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.65 | 99% | Airbnb just found an unexpected way to make AI payprofitableNear 52w High |
| TEAM | +6.7 | Information Technology | 22.0 | — | 73% | Mike Cannon-Brookes says Atlassian is taming AI costsUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| UBER | +4.1 | Information Technology | 17.0 | 8.32 | 26% | TechCrunch Mobility: Zoox prepares for launch and Uber’s AV empireprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NET | +3.2 | Information Technology | 180.0 | — | 85% | More Than Half of Cloudflare's Network Traffic Is No Longer Human. The Stock Broke to a Record on It.EV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MGNI | LONG | 43.1% | -0.24 | -0.35 | -1.16 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | UPST | LONG | 43.1% | -0.24 | -0.35 | -1.16 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 3 | ABNB | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.1); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 4 | UBER | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | TEAM | LONG | 42.8% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.7); Accelerating velocity +2.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 7 | NET | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 43.4% over 221 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.260%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | +2.0 | 2 | Mike Cannon-Brookes says Atlassian is taming AI costs |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| UPST | -4.5 | Why Upstart Stock Plunged 23% in July |
| MGNI | -3.7 | A Magnite Insider Kept $12 Million in Stock After Selling. Here's What to Know |
| WEN | -3.5 | 5 things wrong with Wendy’s right now, including 1 big one that’s threatening its entire turnaround effort |
| HUBS | -3.4 | HubSpot Just Cut Its Own Customer-Growth Forecast to 5,000 a Quarter. What Is the Stock Worth in 3 Years? |
| APP | -3.0 | Analysts Are Slashing Price Targets on AppLovin Stock. Here's Why. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +95 | +393 | +2,813 | |
| Information Technology | +16 | +354 | +542 | |
| Energy | +11 | +45 | +2,275 | |
| Materials | -3 | +36 | -60 | |
| Industrials | -7 | -32 | -628 | |
| Health Care | -12 | -38 | -246 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | -87 | -383 | |
| Utilities | -20 | -128 | -815 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -14 | -150 | -1,298 | |
| Consumer Staples | -13 | -170 | -682 | |
| Real Estate | -27 | -223 | -1,519 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment | +14.7 | -6 | |
| Market Volatility | +12.2 | -2 | |
| Monetary Policy | +11.8 | 0 | |
| Financialization | +9.0 | +9 | |
| Semiconductors | -25.8 | 0 | |
| Cloud Computing | -26.7 | +8 | |
| Geopolitics | -34.2 | -4 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -104.5 | +91 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.64% (80% band -1.95% to +1.87%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.73 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.63 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.53 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.52 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.47 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 74 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,021 |
| Projected close of day | 1,300 |
| Daily average | 1,338 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.71× |
| Total in corpus | 148,547 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.