real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.39% ± 5.59% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.43 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (56.1% posterior, +0.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0771%/day and dominates. Net +0.0762%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +11.3 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.1 | 1.65 | 99% | Airbnb shares jump 17% after quarterly results beat expectationsprofitableNear 52w High |
| PLTR | +7.1 | Information Technology | 74.5 | 2.37 | 65% | Palantir vs. Salesforce: Two Visions of Enterprise AI, One Clear WinnerprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NESR | +7.0 | Energy | 11.6 | — | 95% | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beatprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| TEAM | +4.7 | Information Technology | 22.0 | — | 73% | Mike Cannon-Brookes says Atlassian is taming AI costsUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABCL | +4.0 | Health Care | -9.7 | — | 73% | AbCellera stock surges 22% on positive trial resultsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABNB | LONG | 42.7% | -0.15 | -0.70 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.3); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 2 | UPST | LONG | 43.2% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 3 | ABCL | LONG | 42.8% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | TEAM | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.8); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 43.1% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | NESR | LONG | 42.7% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.1); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
Engine hit rate 43.4% over 221 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.260%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABCL | +8.0 | 2 | AbCellera stock surges 22% on positive trial results |
| NESR | +7.0 | 2 | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beat |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CEVA | -3.2 | Ceva Tops Q2 Targets On Edge AI Tech Licensing |
| UPST | -3.2 | Why Upstart Stock Plunged 23% in July |
| SVV | -2.6 | Savers Value Village's CFO Cashed In Options Struck at $7.11. Here's What to Know |
| MGNI | -2.6 | A Magnite Insider Kept $12 Million in Stock After Selling. Here's What to Know |
| IOT | -2.5 | Piper Sandler downgrades Samsara stock rating on valuation |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +7 | +387 | +515 | |
| Financials | +118 | +336 | +2,861 | |
| Energy | +84 | +157 | +2,334 | |
| Materials | -1 | +44 | -43 | |
| Health Care | -24 | -55 | -254 | |
| Industrials | -41 | -80 | -657 | |
| Communication Services | -25 | -87 | -386 | |
| Utilities | -23 | -146 | -832 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -39 | -162 | -1,319 | |
| Consumer Staples | -31 | -190 | -702 | |
| Real Estate | -22 | -201 | -1,520 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +29.3 | +55 | |
| Employment | +24.2 | +3 | |
| Tokenization | +18.8 | +28 | |
| Global Markets | +17.2 | +14 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -15.5 | -28 | |
| Cloud Computing | -25.0 | +8 | |
| Geopolitics | -43.0 | -17 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -119.3 | +83 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.59% (80% band -2.01% to +1.70%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.6h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.69 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.65 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.58 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.53 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.43 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.40 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 510 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,021 |
| Projected close of day | 1,263 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.69× |
| Total in corpus | 148,983 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.