real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.57% ± 5.43% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.47 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (60.7% posterior, +43.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1018%/day and dominates. Net +0.1009%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +10.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.7 | 1.65 | 100% | Airbnb shares jump 17% after quarterly results beat expectationsprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| PLTR | +6.5 | Information Technology | 75.9 | 2.37 | 68% | Palantir vs. Salesforce: Two Visions of Enterprise AI, One Clear WinnerprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NESR | +6.5 | Energy | 13.4 | — | 97% | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beatprofitableFwd P/E < 15Near 52w High |
| SPCX | +4.9 | Industrials | 71.1 | — | 22% | SpaceX Stock Set To Reclaim IPO Price After Earnings, Share UnlockExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| TEAM | +4.4 | Information Technology | 22.2 | — | 73% | Mike Cannon-Brookes says Atlassian is taming AI costsUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABNB | LONG | 40.6% | -0.15 | -0.70 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.5); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 2 | ABCL | LONG | 41.2% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +8.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | WDAY | LONG | 42.4% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | NESR | LONG | 41.9% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | MNDY | LONG | 42.4% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | TEAM | LONG | 41.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.4); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 41.5% | -0.25 | -0.65 | -1.25 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | SPCX | LONG | 41.3% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); Accelerating velocity +7.2 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.4% over 221 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.260%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABCL | +8.0 | 2 | AbCellera stock surges 22% on positive trial results |
| SPCX | +7.2 | 3 | SpaceX Stock Set To Reclaim IPO Price After Earnings, Share Unlock |
| NESR | +7.0 | 2 | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beat |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WDAY | -4.5 | Workday (WDAY) Faces an AI Threat. Is the Investment Case Broken? |
| MNDY | -4.2 | Monday.com Falls As Software Maker's Guidance Trumps Earnings Beat |
| ZTS | -3.2 | Zoetis (ZTS) Looked Like a Winner. What Went Wrong? |
| CEVA | -2.9 | Ceva Tops Q2 Targets On Edge AI Tech Licensing |
| UPST | -2.9 | Why Upstart Stock Plunged 23% in July |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +13 | +383 | +496 | |
| Financials | +133 | +331 | +2,890 | |
| Energy | +98 | +208 | +2,346 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +5 | +46 | -34 | |
| Health Care | -31 | -60 | -259 | |
| Communication Services | -26 | -92 | -393 | |
| Industrials | -48 | -92 | -662 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -150 | -838 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -36 | -174 | -1,314 | |
| Consumer Staples | -41 | -194 | -710 | |
| Real Estate | -36 | -207 | -1,523 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +41.8 | +67 | |
| Tokenization | +27.3 | +36 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +24.0 | +31 | |
| Employment | +23.2 | +2 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -15.2 | -28 | |
| Cloud Computing | -26.8 | +6 | |
| Geopolitics | -44.2 | -21 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -74.0 | +125 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.60% (80% band -2.06% to +1.67%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.70% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.7h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.64 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.59 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.54 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.49 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.45 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 732 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,021 |
| Projected close of day | 1,411 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.82× |
| Total in corpus | 149,205 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.