real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.58% ± 5.43% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.47 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (61.1% posterior, +43.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1024%/day and dominates. Net +0.1015%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | +10.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.8 | 1.65 | 99% | BMO Capital Markets Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) StockprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| PLTR | +9.7 | Information Technology | 76.8 | 2.37 | 70% | Pltr yoloprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SPCX | +5.4 | Industrials | 71.7 | — | 23% | Why Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is an Idiosyncratic Growth Play?Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ARM | +4.7 | Information Technology | 88.4 | 2.32 | 49% | AI Workload Evolution Is Creating a New Growth Catalyst for Arm Holdings plc (ARM)profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NESR | +4.6 | Energy | 14.1 | — | 99% | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beatprofitableFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABCL | LONG | 41.2% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | TTMI | LONG | 42.4% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | WDAY | LONG | 42.4% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | ABNB | LONG | 40.9% | -0.20 | -0.64 | -0.72 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.4); Accelerating velocity +2.2 (2 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 5 | RKLB | LONG | 41.2% | -0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | ON | LONG | 42.4% | -0.30 | -0.32 | -1.20 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 7 | NESR | LONG | 41.9% | -0.26 | -0.54 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | SPCX | LONG | 41.3% | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); Accelerating velocity +11.6 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.5% over 223 scored calls (lower bound 37.2%), average net alpha -0.260%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | +11.6 | 4 | Why Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is an Idiosyncratic Growth Play? |
| ABCL | +9.0 | 3 | Abcellera Biologics stock hits 52-week high at 8.79 USD |
| NESR | +7.0 | 2 | National Energy Services Reunited shares jump 10% after Q2 earnings beat |
| RKLB | +4.2 | 2 | SpaceX Rivals Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile About To Report Earnings. What To Expect. |
| ABNB | +2.2 | 2 | BMO Capital Markets Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) Stock |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WDAY | -3.6 | Workday (WDAY) Faces an AI Threat. Is the Investment Case Broken? |
| VRSK | -2.7 | Court rejects Verisk plan to cancel $2.35 billion merger |
| ZTS | -2.6 | Zoetis (ZTS) Looked Like a Winner. What Went Wrong? |
| UPST | -2.4 | Why Upstart Stock Plunged 23% in July |
| RBLX | -2.3 | Here’s Why Sands Capital Technology Innovators Fund Sold Roblox Corporation (RBLX) |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +28 | +384 | +503 | |
| Financials | +170 | +370 | +2,915 | |
| Energy | +124 | +260 | +2,363 | |
| Materials | -4 | +35 | -43 | |
| Health Care | -40 | -74 | -263 | |
| Industrials | -54 | -97 | -665 | |
| Communication Services | -34 | -114 | -392 | |
| Utilities | -52 | -171 | -860 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -40 | -181 | -1,309 | |
| Consumer Staples | -52 | -198 | -714 | |
| Real Estate | -46 | -212 | -1,534 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +62.5 | +90 | |
| Tokenization | +37.8 | +46 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +36.8 | +43 | |
| Semiconductors | +26.0 | +53 | |
| Fintech | -13.8 | -6 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.5 | -33 | |
| Cloud Computing | -23.2 | +7 | |
| Geopolitics | -44.5 | -24 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.57% (80% band -1.93% to +1.55%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.5 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.65% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.78 | 3.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.67 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.55 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.48 | 4.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.47 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,012 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,021 |
| Projected close of day | 1,432 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.93× |
| Total in corpus | 149,485 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.