real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.60% ± 5.43% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.48 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (61.3% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1026%/day and dominates. Net +0.1022%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +7.4 | Information Technology | 75.9 | 2.37 | 68% | Why Bulls Remain High on Palantir As It Passes $170profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +5.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 30.1 | 1.65 | 98% | BMO Capital Markets Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) StockprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| ARM | +3.8 | Information Technology | 87.3 | 2.32 | 48% | Arm Stock Is Off 39% From Its High. Why This Could Be the Best Time to Buy.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SPCX | +2.9 | Industrials | 74.9 | — | 28% | Why Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is an Idiosyncratic Growth Play?Extended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| RIOT | +2.7 | Financials | -27.3 | — | 43% | Anthropic Strikes $9 Billion Cloud Deal With Riot ($RIOT) PlatformsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WEN | LONG | 41.8% | +0.21 | +0.48 | +0.55 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued |
| 2 | HONA | LONG | 41.8% | +0.21 | +0.48 | +0.55 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 3 | RIOT | LONG | 41.4% | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.52 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.7); Accelerating velocity +12.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | ABNB | LONG | 40.6% | -0.12 | -0.61 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 5 | ARM | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | TTMI | LONG | 0.0% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | SPCX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 229 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.259%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +12.8 | 3 | Anthropic Strikes $9 Billion Cloud Deal With Riot ($RIOT) Platforms |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WEN | -5.8 | Wendy's loses status as second-largest burger chain after 6-year run |
| HIMS | -4.0 | Why is Hims & Hers Health stock sliding today? |
| HONA | -3.0 | Jim Cramer Dumps Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) After Shock Guidance Cut Triggers Sharp Selloff |
| LIFE | -2.0 | ASX gains as RBA keeps rates on hold; oil stocks rally, SGH, Life360 plunge |
| ARCC | -1.9 | Ares Capital Earned $0.50 a Share and Is Paying Out $0.48. How Thin Is That Dividend Cushion? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +189 | +392 | +2,471 | |
| Financials | +135 | +390 | +2,901 | |
| Information Technology | +65 | +372 | +472 | |
| Materials | -14 | +35 | -41 | |
| Health Care | -43 | -89 | -274 | |
| Industrials | -48 | -115 | -679 | |
| Communication Services | -25 | -127 | -398 | |
| Utilities | -54 | -171 | -863 | |
| Consumer Staples | -51 | -209 | -725 | |
| Real Estate | -79 | -232 | -1,526 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -75 | -245 | -1,342 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +106.0 | +138 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +66.7 | +251 | |
| Tokenization | +39.8 | +48 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +37.0 | +44 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -17.8 | -34 | |
| Cloud Computing | -19.2 | +10 | |
| Inflation | -26.3 | -51 | |
| Geopolitics | -46.2 | -27 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.61% (80% band -1.96% to +1.89%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.65% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.75 | 2.7h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.49 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 172 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,365 |
| Projected close of day | 695 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.01× |
| Total in corpus | 150,010 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.